Napoli vs Pisa – 22 Sep 2025

Serie A Gameweek 4 Mon, Sep 22 · 19:45 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 3rd · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

3–2Full time

Pisa 19th · 1 pts · 3 played DLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were clear favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 14). Napoli usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Napoli had 9 days of rest, Pisa 8.2 and had to travel 449 km.

Away travel449 kmRest days9 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Napoli80%

Draw14%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.57

Napoli82%

Draw12%

Pisa5%

Expected goals 2.84 – 0.63

Napoli81%

Draw14%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.56

Napoli75%

Draw17%

Pisa8%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.64

Napoli82%

Draw12%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.85 – 0.65

Over 2.5 61% Both score 41% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Cards per match 2.5
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 2

Team strength

Napoli

Pisa

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

60 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

61 AttackIn forecast 15

70 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Pisa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Pisa

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33

0.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

100% Scored inContext 33%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 10.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

40% On target shareContext 23%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

68% Box shareContext 56%

13% ConversionContext 3%

— OffsidesContext 1.67

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.67

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.33 BlocksContext 4.00

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

83% Save rateContext 79%

59% PossessionIn forecast 39%

542 PassesContext 309

478 Accurate passesContext 237

88% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.79

15.33 FoulsContext 12.00

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

80% Scored inContext 33%

70% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.30 ShotsContext 10.00

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

38% On target shareContext 23%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

71% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 3%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.00 Shots allowedContext 14.67

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.10 BlocksContext 4.00

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

82% Save rateContext 79%

57% PossessionIn forecast 39%

507 PassesContext 309

444 Accurate passesContext 237

88% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.10 FoulsContext 12.00

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 0.67

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 3 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km819 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Pisa

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel449 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Pisa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep	8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	449 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	819 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Meret(G)

37L. Spinazzola 4A. Buongiorno 31S. Beukema 22G. Di Lorenzo

6B. Gilmour

8S. McTominay 11K. De Bruyne 20E. Elmas 21M. Politano

19R. Højlund

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Pisa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Šemper(G)

47Mateus Lusuardi 4A. Caracciolo 5S. Canestrelli

94G. Bonfanti 14E. Akinsanmiro 20M. Aebischer 6M. Marin 7M. Léris

32S. Moreo 18M. Nzola

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Pisa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Pisa+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Pisa · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Pisa	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.33
Conceded per game	0.33	1.00
Match goals	2.33	1.33	3.17
Over 1.5	67%	33%
Over 2.5	33%	0%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	41%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

	Napoli	Pisa	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.33
Conceded per game	0.33	1.00
Match goals	2.33	1.33	3.17
Over 1.5	67%	33%
Over 2.5	33%	0%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	41%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Pisa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.33
Corners conceded	4.50	7.67
Match total	8.00	12.00	9.35
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.67
Opponent cards	1.33	2.00
Match total	2.33	2.67	3.65
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/3

	Napoli	Pisa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.33
Corners conceded	4.88	7.67
Match total	8.63	12.00	9.35
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.40	0.67
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.20	2.67	3.65
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/3

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Valerio Crezzini 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.50league 3.51

Red cards0.00league 0.10

Cards 5+50%league 36%

Fouls27.5league 25.9

Penalties0.00league 0.21

Home wins50%league 38%

Napoli

No previous matches with this referee.

Pisa

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.