NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Ajax. NEC Nijmegen had 7.1 days of rest, Ajax 6.2 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
NEC Nijmegen38%
Draw26%
Ajax36%
NEC Nijmegen37%
Draw27%
Ajax36%
NEC Nijmegen37%
Draw26%
Ajax37%
NEC Nijmegen31%
Draw26%
Ajax43%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Draw27%
Ajax35%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 67
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
37
AttackIn forecast
66
33
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenAjax
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
94%
Scored inContext
94%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.94
ShotsContext
14.13
6.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.94
44%
On target shareContext
42%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
63%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.54
OffsidesContext
1.79
11.13
Shots allowedContext
14.19
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.07
2.19
BlocksContext
4.31
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.73
69%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
428
PassesContext
522
344
Accurate passesContext
451
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.94
FoulsContext
10.88
11.69
Fouls sufferedContext
12.81
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.20
ShotsContext
10.90
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
41%
On target shareContext
41%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
64%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.60
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.30
BlocksContext
4.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
71%
Save rateContext
72%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
399
PassesContext
506
319
Accurate passesContext
437
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.00
FoulsContext
10.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 28 | 21.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
4K. Itakura
3A. Gaaei
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
10O. Gloukh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Ajax-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.43
Ajax · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | D 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 28 of 48 · 1.75 per game | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Ajax0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 1 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
- 18 Feb 2024Ajax2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 3 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 3.13 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 56% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 69% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 69% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 6% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.19 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 10.50 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 3.38 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.30 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.80 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.35
Red cards0.19league 0.21
Cards 5+34%league 32%
Fouls20.1league 21.9
Penalties0.21league 0.31
Home wins36%league 48%
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Groningen2–01
- L10 Aug 24H · Twente1–20
- L13 Aug 23H · Excelsior3–41
Ajax4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01
- D10 Nov 24A · Twente2–21
- W6 Oct 24H · Groningen3–13
- L8 Oct 23H · AZ Alkmaar1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen16 games · scored 41 · conceded 27
4
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
6
6
31-45
8
6
46-60
9
4
61-75
11
4
76-90
Ajax16 games · scored 30 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
5
31-45
9
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
8
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
