NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 17). NEC Nijmegen had ? days of rest, Excelsior ? and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw24%
Excelsior22%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw25%
Excelsior21%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw24%
Excelsior22%
NEC Nijmegen46%
Draw26%
Excelsior28%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw25%
Excelsior21%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 79
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
21
33
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenExcelsior
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
44%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
67%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.38
15.30
Shots allowedContext
16.20
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.30
BlocksContext
5.00
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
80%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
390
PassesContext
387
307
Accurate passesContext
291
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.00
FoulsContext
7.50
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24C. Verdonk
3P. Sandler
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
71D. Proper
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
9T. Chery
18K. Ogawa
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
5S. Henderikx
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
25S. Middendorp
6A. Carlén
11G. de Regt
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
29M. van Duinen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Excelsior+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Excelsior · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game3.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Aug 2023NEC Nijmegen3–4Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 13.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.30 | 13.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 4.00
Red cards0.13league 1.00
Cards 5+29%league 100%
Fouls21.4league 19.0
Penalties0.22league 0.00
Home wins43%league 0%
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D3 May 25H · Willem II1–12
- L23 Feb 25A · Twente0–22
- D21 Oct 23H · Almere City FC1–12
ExcelsiorNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC NijmegenExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
3
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
