NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. NEC Nijmegen had 3.1 days of rest, Excelsior 2.9 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days3.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
NEC Nijmegen52%
Draw22%
Excelsior26%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Draw24%
Excelsior23%
NEC Nijmegen52%
Draw22%
Excelsior26%
NEC Nijmegen44%
Draw23%
Excelsior33%
NEC Nijmegen51%
Draw22%
Excelsior27%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 32
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
21
33
DefenceIn forecast
18
39
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenExcelsior
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
2.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.00
ShotsContext
12.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
42%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
61%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
21%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.25
Shots allowedContext
14.25
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.75
BlocksContext
4.75
1.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
39%
Save rateContext
79%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
498
PassesContext
396
410
Accurate passesContext
315
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.14
11.75
FoulsContext
11.75
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
6.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-1.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.70
ShotsContext
13.00
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
39%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
58%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
19%
3.43
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.20
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.30
BlocksContext
4.40
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
61%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
446
PassesContext
398
355
Accurate passesContext
316
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.00
FoulsContext
11.10
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
7.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
LWWL
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,710 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 39 · 6 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Excelsior
WLWW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km117 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 69 · 9 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 2.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,710 km | 117 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
12N. Polster(G)
21T. Storm
17B. Nuytinck
73Gabriel Brás
77A. Thomas
18D. Geiger
35Jamiro Monteiro
19A. Tahaui
8I. Hansen-Aarøen
11W. Willumsson
10D. Tadić
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
15Simon Janssen
20L. Hartjes
8I. Yegoian
2E. da Silva Moreira
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
21I. Silva Timas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Excelsior+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Excelsior · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II | W 4–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 4 Apr 2026Excelsior0–2NEC Nijmegen
- 9 Aug 2025NEC Nijmegen5–0Excelsior
- 13 Aug 2023NEC Nijmegen3–4Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.25 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.60 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.75 | 10.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.11 | 10.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 1.80 | 2.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.94league 2.62
Red cards0.03league 0.07
Cards 5+9%league 14%
Fouls22.4league 21.0
Penalties0.09league 0.24
Home wins41%league 24%
NEC Nijmegen7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 Jan 26A · NAC Breda4–31
- D25 Oct 25A · PEC Zwolle2–21
- L31 Aug 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–31
- W14 May 25H · NAC Breda3–00
- D29 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–33
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Feb 26H · AZ Alkmaar1–21
- W23 Sep 23A · Heerenveen3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen4 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Excelsior4 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
