NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen51.1%fair odds 1.96
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.28
Excelsior25.5%fair odds 3.92
Expected goals1.91 – 1.30total 3.21
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.48
- 2–19.6%10.45
- 2–07.3%13.61
- 1–07.2%13.96
- 1–26.5%15.34
- 2–26.2%16.06
- 3–16.1%16.42
- 0–14.7%21.22
- 3–04.7%21.37
- 0–04.6%21.94
Winning margin
13.8%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 7.24
15.7%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 6.38
21.6%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.62
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.28
14.6%
Excelsior by 1
fair 6.86
7.3%
Excelsior by 2
fair 13.73
3.7%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 27.21
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Excelsior goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 51.1% | 50.5% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 23.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Excelsior win | 25.5% | 26.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 61.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.5% | 62.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.91 | 1.88 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.30 | 1.30 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win51.1%1.96
- Draw23.3%4.28
- Excelsior win25.5%3.92
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw74.5%1.34
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior76.7%1.30
- Double chance Excelsior or draw48.9%2.05
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen66.7%1.50
- Draw no bet Excelsior33.3%3.00
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.3%1.61
- Over 3.540.0%2.50
- Over 4.522.2%4.51
- Under 1.516.4%6.08
- Under 2.537.7%2.65
- Under 3.560.0%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes62.5%1.60
- No37.5%2.67
- Yes and over 2.552.0%1.92
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes28.5%3.51
- Draw and yes18.8%5.32
- Excelsior win and yes15.3%6.55
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.585.2%1.17
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.556.9%1.76
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.529.9%3.34
- Excelsior over 0.572.8%1.37
- Excelsior over 1.537.4%2.68
- Excelsior over 2.514.3%6.98
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet27.2%3.68
- Excelsior clean sheet14.8%6.76
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil22.7%4.41
- Excelsior win to nil10.2%9.76
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.529.5%3.39
- NEC Nijmegen −2.513.8%7.24
- Excelsior +1.570.5%1.42
- Excelsior +2.586.2%1.16
- Excelsior −1.511.0%9.13
- NEC Nijmegen +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.599
Over 2.5 called right85.7%
BTTS called right76.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.6% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 55.8% | 73.3% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.4% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6151 | 0.6316 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 55.6% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.