NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
5th · 43 pts · 25 played
WLDDL
First leg3–2
3–0Full time
FC Volendam
14th · 27 pts · 25 played
DWWLW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were clear favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Volendam. NEC Nijmegen had 8 days of rest, FC Volendam 7.2 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days8 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen65%
Draw20%
FC Volendam16%
NEC Nijmegen61%
Draw22%
FC Volendam16%
NEC Nijmegen64%
Draw20%
FC Volendam16%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw22%
FC Volendam21%
NEC Nijmegen63%
Draw21%
FC Volendam17%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
NEC NijmegenFC Volendam
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
37
AttackIn forecast
14
33
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenFC Volendam
2.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
96%
Scored inContext
68%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
15.68
ShotsContext
10.32
6.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
42%
On target shareContext
34%
9.68
Shots in the boxContext
6.36
62%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.52
OffsidesContext
1.68
11.52
Shots allowedContext
18.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.16
2.50
BlocksContext
5.44
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.64
67%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
431
PassesContext
357
346
Accurate passesContext
286
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.32
FoulsContext
9.40
11.84
Fouls sufferedContext
12.04
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.30
ShotsContext
9.70
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
41%
On target shareContext
33%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
61%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.10
12.00
Shots allowedContext
19.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.33
BlocksContext
5.60
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.60
63%
Save rateContext
80%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
443
PassesContext
341
355
Accurate passesContext
268
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.20
FoulsContext
10.50
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
22J. Cillessen(G)
24D. Fonville
3P. Sandler
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
7O. Kökçü
40R. van Cruijsen
11A. Oehlers
4J. Bacuna
77B. Ould-Chikh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- FC Volendam-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
FC Volendam · Away
0.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-9
- Scored
- 0.58
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 40 of 72 · 1.67 per game | 27 of 72 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2025FC Volendam2–3NEC Nijmegen
- 5 Nov 2023NEC Nijmegen3–3FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.44 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 4.16 | 2.80 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 64% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 68% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 84% | 64% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 32% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.40 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.42 | 3.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 10.57 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 12/24 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 8.11 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 11.44 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.54league 3.27
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+24%league 29%
Fouls19.9league 21.4
Penalties0.24league 0.25
Home wins57%league 44%
NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D18 Oct 25H · Twente3–32
- W19 Jan 25H · Fortuna Sittard4–10
- W19 Oct 24H · Heerenveen3–00
- W3 Feb 24H · Heracles3–11
- L3 Dec 23H · Ajax1–20
FC Volendam4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Jan 26H · Utrecht2–13
- L1 Nov 25A · Feyenoord1–30
- L20 Sep 25H · Excelsior1–23
- D9 Aug 25A · Heerenveen1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen25 games · scored 61 · conceded 43
8
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
12
31-45
13
9
46-60
11
6
61-75
15
5
76-90
FC Volendam25 games · scored 29 · conceded 41
2
10
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
7
9
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
