NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 53 pts · 29 played
LWWDW
First leg4–2
1–1Full time
Feyenoord
2nd · 54 pts · 29 played
LDWDD
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. NEC Nijmegen had 7.7 days of rest, Feyenoord 7 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days7.7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen46%
Draw25%
Feyenoord30%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Draw27%
Feyenoord32%
NEC Nijmegen44%
Draw25%
Feyenoord31%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Draw25%
Feyenoord37%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Draw26%
Feyenoord30%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 100
Team strength
NEC NijmegenFeyenoord
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
37
AttackIn forecast
76
33
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenFeyenoord
2.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
97%
Scored inContext
86%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
16.17
ShotsContext
16.90
6.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.34
42%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.76
62%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.06
11.24
Shots allowedContext
10.55
4.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.41
BlocksContext
2.86
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
424
PassesContext
439
338
Accurate passesContext
365
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.03
FoulsContext
9.41
11.34
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
1.66
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.70
ShotsContext
15.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
40%
On target shareContext
36%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
59%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.57
10.40
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.38
BlocksContext
2.70
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
71%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
439
PassesContext
410
350
Accurate passesContext
336
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.10
FoulsContext
9.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 189 km | 151 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.3 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
30M. Lotomba
24T. Kraaijeveld
4T. Watanabe
20M. Deijl
28O. Targhalline
7J. Moder
10L. Valente
44Tobias van den Elshout
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Feyenoord-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 2.64
- Conceded
- 1.57
Feyenoord · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 2–0 AW 5–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | L 3–4 HW 4–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | W 4–2 HW 7–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 6–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 50 of 84 · 1.79 per game | 54 of 84 · 1.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins3 draws0 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 23 Nov 2025Feyenoord2–4NEC Nijmegen
- 1 Mar 2025Feyenoord0–0NEC Nijmegen
- 28 Sep 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Feyenoord
- 14 Jan 2024Feyenoord2–2NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.45 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 4.07 | 3.48 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 62% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 66% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 59% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.61 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.74 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 14/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 12/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 21% 6/29 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 4.20 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.18
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 26%
Fouls23.0league 21.2
Penalties0.29league 0.23
Home wins50%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W31 Jan 26A · AZ Alkmaar3–12
- L2 Nov 25A · Utrecht0–12
- W11 May 25A · Ajax3–04
- D1 Feb 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–31
- D1 Sep 23A · Sparta Rotterdam1–15
Feyenoord11 with this referee
Record9-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W15 Mar 26H · Excelsior2–13
- W25 Jan 26H · Heracles4–22
- L14 Dec 25A · Ajax0–21
- W31 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam4–02
- W16 Mar 25A · Twente6–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen29 games · scored 71 · conceded 47
8
5
0-15
9
6
16-30
10
15
31-45
15
9
46-60
14
6
61-75
15
6
76-90
Feyenoord29 games · scored 61 · conceded 40
4
6
0-15
12
7
16-30
13
6
31-45
13
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
13
11
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
