NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord – 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 5 · 15:30 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen 7th · 6 pts · 3 played LWW

1–3Full time

Feyenoord 3rd · 8 pts · 4 played WDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 41). Absences weigh more on NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen had 6.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 6.1 and had to travel 95 km.

Away travel95 kmRest days6.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

NEC Nijmegen37%

Draw23%

Feyenoord40%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.73

NEC Nijmegen38%

Draw26%

Feyenoord35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

NEC Nijmegen39%

Draw23%

Feyenoord38%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.65

NEC Nijmegen30%

Draw22%

Feyenoord48%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.94

NEC Nijmegen37%

Draw23%

Feyenoord40%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.68

Over 2.5 66% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nijmegen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 82

Team strength

NEC Nijmegen

Feyenoord

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

37 AttackIn forecast 76

33 DefenceIn forecast 61

52 Form indexContext 52

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC Nijmegen

Feyenoord

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.38 xGVia Att/Def 2.85

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

19.00 ShotsContext 23.75

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

32% On target shareContext 32%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 15.50

66% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

8.67 Shots allowedContext 10.75

2.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.00 BlocksContext 2.50

1.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

43% Save rateContext 62%

62% PossessionIn forecast 59%

491 PassesContext 518

404 Accurate passesContext 458

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.11

12.67 FoulsContext 7.25

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.69 xGVia Att/Def 2.42

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-1.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.50 ShotsContext 18.70

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

33% On target shareContext 34%

11.20 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

61% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 10%

3.29 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.10 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

2.33 BlocksContext 2.60

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

67% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

448 PassesContext 435

358 Accurate passesContext 365

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.10 FoulsContext 9.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen LWW

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,710 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 52 · 6 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

W29 AugA · PEC Zwolle3–11.7 xPts
W15 AugA · Willem II4–12.0 xPts
L8 AugH · Telstar1–22.0 xPts

Feyenoord WDWD

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel95 km337 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 8 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

D30 AugH · ADO Den Haag2–22.6 xPts
W23 AugA · Cambuur5–22.0 xPts
D16 AugH · GO Ahead Eagles2–22.2 xPts
W9 AugA · Sparta Rotterdam1–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NEC Nijmegen	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,710 km	337 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1G. Crettaz(G)

66A. Kabar 17B. Nuytinck 21T. Storm

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton 6D. Nejašmić 10D. Tadić

9T. Chery

30B. Linssen 14K. Sierhuis

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Ernst(G)

35Mika Màrmol 6J. St. Juste 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read

34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël 28O. Targhalline

10L. Valente 19Nacho Ferri 27G. Diarra

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NEC Nijmegen-1.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Feyenoord+1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Feyenoord · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 NEC Nijmegen wins4 draws0 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.20 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 20%

12 Apr 2026NEC Nijmegen1–1Feyenoord
23 Nov 2025Feyenoord2–4NEC Nijmegen
1 Mar 2025Feyenoord0–0NEC Nijmegen
28 Sep 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Feyenoord
14 Jan 2024Feyenoord2–2NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NEC Nijmegen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	2.50
Conceded per game	1.33	1.50
Match goals	4.00	4.00	3.40
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	100%	75%	66%
Over 3.5	67%	75%
Both teams scored	100%	75%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	4

	NEC Nijmegen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.90	3.40
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	67%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NEC Nijmegen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	7.25
Corners conceded	3.33	4.25
Match total	10.66	11.50	11.16
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.67	0.50
Opponent cards	1.33	1.50
Match total	3.00	2.00	2.19
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/4

	NEC Nijmegen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.50
Corners conceded	3.78	3.40
Match total	9.78	9.90	11.16
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.00
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	3.60	2.80	2.19
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.41league 2.24

Red cards0.18league 0.06

Cards 5+30%league 12%

Fouls19.8league 20.6

Penalties0.18league 0.21

Home wins37%league 29%

NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L8 Aug 26H · Telstar1–22
L28 Feb 26H · Fortuna Sittard2–31
D20 Dec 25H · Ajax2–24
W9 Nov 25H · Groningen2–01
L10 Aug 24H · Twente1–20

Feyenoord8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D5 Apr 26A · FC Volendam0–00
L1 Feb 26A · PSV Eindhoven0–34
L26 Oct 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–30
W17 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard2–00
W9 Aug 25H · NAC Breda2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.