NEC Nijmegen
Attack+13%
Defense risk−18%
NEC Nijmegen
11th · 9 pts · 8 played
LDLDD
2–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard
7th · 14 pts · 8 played
WWLWD
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen were without D. Tadić and P. Sandler. Fortuna Sittard were without Iván Márquez and J. Dahlhaus. NEC Nijmegen had 3 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 8 and had to travel 94 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel94 kmRest days3 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard20%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard22%
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard20%
NEC Nijmegen50%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard27%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw22%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
10°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 90%
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 45
Team strength
NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
19
33
DefenceIn forecast
19
15
Form indexContext
62
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack−1%
Defense risk+1%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
2.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.36
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
88%
Scored inContext
88%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
14.25
ShotsContext
10.63
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
27%
On target shareContext
44%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
60%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.38
Shots allowedContext
19.00
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.13
3.38
BlocksContext
5.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
60%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
473
PassesContext
328
383
Accurate passesContext
254
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.38
FoulsContext
9.13
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
-0.74
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
56%
Box shareContext
53%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
17.80
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.80
BlocksContext
4.60
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
57%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
439
PassesContext
334
353
Accurate passesContext
260
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.43
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.50
FoulsContext
8.80
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
LLDDD
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km177 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Fortuna Sittard
WWLWD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel94 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 10 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +4.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 94 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 177 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
22A. Kaplan
21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro
18D. Geiger
6D. Nejašmić
34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff
20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner
23P. Brittijn
3R. Guth
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand
20É. Michut
14S. Simons
25L. Zeefuik
9A. Descotte
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −29.7% · Defence line −10.5% of weighted minutes
- ATT D. Tadić Starter 6.40 Att −21.7%
- DEF P. Sandler Starter 6.69 Def −8.7%
- ATT A. Thomas Rotation 6.46 Att −5.4%
- DEF B. Nuytinck Rotation 6.33 Def −1.8%
- ATT E. Mor Rotation 6.83 Att −2.5%
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −2.5% · Defence line −21.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF Iván Márquez Starter 6.64 Def −9.8%
- DEF J. Dahlhaus Starter 6.44 Def −9.8%
- MID Y. Oukili Rotation 6.69 Att −2.5% Def −1.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | L 1–5 H |
| Cambuur | L 0–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Willem II | W 4–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.60
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 28 Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen2–3Fortuna Sittard
- 31 Aug 2025Fortuna Sittard3–2NEC Nijmegen
- 19 Jan 2025NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 31 Aug 2024Fortuna Sittard0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.63 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 75% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 8.67 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 12.00 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 7.38 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.13 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.04league 2.76
Red cards0.24league 0.08
Cards 5+20%league 15%
Fouls21.8league 21.3
Penalties0.27league 0.27
Home wins40%league 33%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 26A · Groningen1–21
- W4 Apr 26A · Excelsior2–00
- W16 Aug 25A · Heracles4–12
- L7 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles0–52
- L25 Oct 24A · Almere City FC0–11
Fortuna Sittard8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D8 Aug 26A · PSV Eindhoven2–21
- D7 Feb 26H · Sparta Rotterdam2–23
- D11 Jan 26A · GO Ahead Eagles2–21
- L19 Oct 25A · Excelsior0–13
- L12 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen8 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard8 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
