NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. NEC Nijmegen had 6.9 days of rest, Groningen 7 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen48%
Draw25%
Groningen26%
NEC Nijmegen47%
Draw26%
Groningen26%
NEC Nijmegen49%
Draw25%
Groningen26%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Draw26%
Groningen33%
NEC Nijmegen47%
Draw26%
Groningen27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 62
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
37
AttackIn forecast
41
33
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenGroningen
2.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
91%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
15.36
ShotsContext
13.64
6.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
42%
On target shareContext
45%
9.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
59%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.55
Shots allowedContext
11.27
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.91
BlocksContext
2.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
65%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
442
PassesContext
391
357
Accurate passesContext
310
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.36
FoulsContext
11.36
12.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.18
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
14.00
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.56
40%
On target shareContext
42%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
58%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
1.90
BlocksContext
2.78
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
440
PassesContext
392
355
Accurate passesContext
311
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.20
FoulsContext
11.30
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km114 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 114 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
5T. Ouwejan
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
25S. Ouaissa
18K. Ogawa
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 3.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Groningen · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 2–4 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws1 Groningen wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 8 Feb 2025Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
- 3 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen6–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.45 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 4.27 | 2.91 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 64% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 55% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.70 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.82 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 8.64 | 9.64 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.90 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.35
Red cards0.16league 0.23
Cards 5+34%league 33%
Fouls20.1league 22.2
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins34%league 50%
NEC Nijmegen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Aug 24H · Twente1–20
- L13 Aug 23H · Excelsior3–41
Groningen2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W16 Mar 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–00
- L6 Oct 24A · Ajax1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen11 games · scored 27 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Groningen11 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
