NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 16). NEC Nijmegen had 7.8 days of rest, NAC Breda 6.8 and had to travel 79 km.
Away travel79 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw24%
NAC Breda19%
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
NEC Nijmegen51%
Draw25%
NAC Breda24%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw24%
NAC Breda19%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 36
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
NAC Breda
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
37
AttackIn forecast
19
33
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenNAC Breda
4.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+1.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.00
ShotsContext
10.50
10.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
53%
On target shareContext
29%
14.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
73%
Box shareContext
39%
23%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.50
BlocksContext
5.50
5.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
92%
Save rateContext
63%
72%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
564
PassesContext
317
483
Accurate passesContext
249
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.49
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.50
FoulsContext
10.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.50
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
28%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
70%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.90
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.40
BlocksContext
3.20
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
81%
Save rateContext
62%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
438
PassesContext
408
355
Accurate passesContext
334
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.00
FoulsContext
10.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel79 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 79 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 159 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24C. Verdonk
3P. Sandler
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
71D. Proper
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
10T. Chery
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
15E. Mahmutović
25C. Valerius
90L. Holtby
16M. Balard
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
NAC Breda · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 14 May 2025NEC Nijmegen3–0NAC Breda
- 5 Oct 2024NAC Breda1–0NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| NEC Nijmegen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.00 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.22 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.92league 3.36
Red cards0.06league 0.14
Cards 5+6%league 32%
Fouls16.1league 21.8
Penalties0.25league 0.14
Home wins56%league 50%
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Nov 24H · Utrecht1–20
- D28 Sep 24H · Feyenoord1–11
- D18 Feb 24A · Ajax2–20
NAC Breda3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Mar 25A · Almere City FC1–10
- L9 Feb 25A · Waalwijk0–51
- L21 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen2 games · scored 9 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
NAC Breda2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
8
61-75
6
2
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
