NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen59.1%fair odds 1.69
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.40
NAC Breda18.2%fair odds 5.50
Expected goals1.95 – 0.99total 2.94
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.30
- 2–010.0%9.98
- 2–110.0%10.05
- 1–09.7%10.28
- 3–06.5%15.36
- 3–16.5%15.46
- 0–05.8%17.21
- 1–25.1%19.72
- 2–24.9%20.23
- 0–14.7%21.31
Winning margin
17.4%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 5.75
18.3%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 5.47
23.5%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.26
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.40
11.7%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 8.55
4.7%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 21.09
1.7%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 57.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
NAC Breda goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 59.1% | 57.7% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.6% | -0.9 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 18.2% | 18.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 53.5% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.6% | 52.8% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.95 | 1.85 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 0.99 | 0.96 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win59.1%1.69
- Draw22.7%4.40
- NAC Breda win18.2%5.50
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw81.8%1.22
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or NAC Breda77.3%1.29
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw40.9%2.45
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen76.5%1.31
- Draw no bet NAC Breda23.5%4.25
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.70
- Under 1.520.2%4.94
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes54.6%1.83
- No45.4%2.20
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes27.9%3.58
- Draw and yes16.9%5.92
- NAC Breda win and yes9.8%10.24
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.585.8%1.17
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.558.0%1.72
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.531.0%3.23
- NAC Breda over 0.563.0%1.59
- NAC Breda over 1.526.2%3.82
- NAC Breda over 2.57.9%12.64
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet37.0%2.70
- NAC Breda clean sheet14.2%7.03
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil31.2%3.20
- NAC Breda win to nil8.4%11.88
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.535.6%2.81
- NEC Nijmegen −2.517.4%5.75
- NAC Breda +1.564.4%1.55
- NAC Breda +2.582.6%1.21
- NAC Breda −1.56.5%15.41
- NEC Nijmegen +1.593.5%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored22
Favourite won59.1%
Avg chance given to result45.7%
1X2 Brier0.511
Over 2.5 called right72.7%
BTTS called right59.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.7% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 56.0% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 22 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4995 | 0.4951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Heerenveen 1–2 Twente35·26·39
- ✗Telstar 2–2 FC Volendam56·24·20
- ✓PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Groningen81·13·6
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 Sparta Rotterdam48·26·26
- ✓NAC Breda 2–1 Fortuna Sittard44·26·30
- ✗FC Volendam 2–2 AZ Alkmaar19·23·57
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Utrecht28·26·45
- ✓Twente 0–2 PSV Eindhoven19·22·59
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Ajax26·25·49
- ✓Groningen 2–1 Heerenveen44·26·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 22 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.