NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
4th · 32 pts · 18 played
WWDDW
First leg2–2
2–1Full time
PEC Zwolle
11th · 23 pts · 19 played
LWLDW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 22). NEC Nijmegen usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. NEC Nijmegen had 6.9 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
NEC Nijmegen56%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle20%
NEC Nijmegen55%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle20%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle20%
NEC Nijmegen49%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle26%
NEC Nijmegen55%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 31
Team strength
NEC NijmegenPEC Zwolle
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
37
AttackIn forecast
17
33
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenPEC Zwolle
2.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.11
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
94%
Scored inContext
84%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.56
ShotsContext
8.26
6.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.06
44%
On target shareContext
35%
10.06
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
64%
Box shareContext
62%
17%
ConversionContext
16%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.06
11.72
Shots allowedContext
17.37
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.32
2.39
BlocksContext
4.11
3.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.32
68%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
420
PassesContext
354
337
Accurate passesContext
276
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.78
FoulsContext
10.47
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.53
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
90%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.60
ShotsContext
8.10
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
45%
On target shareContext
43%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
66%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
20%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.50
Shots allowedContext
17.80
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
2.70
BlocksContext
4.70
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
72%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
405
PassesContext
337
324
Accurate passesContext
256
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.10
FoulsContext
10.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel76 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 159 km | 127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
20N. Lebreton
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
9Y. Namli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-1
- Scored
- 2.88
- Conceded
- 1.50
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 1–6 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 0–4 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | L 2–8 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 31 of 51 · 1.82 per game | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025PEC Zwolle2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 11 Jan 2025PEC Zwolle0–1NEC Nijmegen
- 24 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0PEC Zwolle
- 9 Dec 2023PEC Zwolle1–3NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.61 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 2.11 | |
| Match goals | 4.39 | 3.42 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 72% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 16% | |
| Games | 18 | 19 |
| NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.90 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 2.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.88 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 8.47 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 3.79 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.00 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.26league 3.37
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+16%league 31%
Fouls18.5league 21.6
Penalties0.29league 0.28
Home wins42%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 May 25A · Heracles2–11
- W15 Mar 25A · Utrecht1–03
- L8 Feb 25A · Groningen1–20
- D15 Dec 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–10
- W20 Jan 24H · Twente1–00
PEC Zwolle1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Nov 23H · Waalwijk1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen18 games · scored 47 · conceded 32
6
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
6
9
31-45
9
7
46-60
10
4
61-75
12
5
76-90
PEC Zwolle18 games · scored 25 · conceded 38
6
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
6
14
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 25 · conceded 18
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
4
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
