NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
4th · 21 pts · 13 played
DDLWW
3–1Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
11th · 17 pts · 13 played
WWLLD
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 22). NEC Nijmegen had 6.3 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen56%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
NEC Nijmegen55%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
NEC Nijmegen48%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 23
Team strength
NEC NijmegenSparta Rotterdam
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
37
AttackIn forecast
32
33
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenSparta Rotterdam
2.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
92%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
15.69
ShotsContext
11.92
6.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.85
43%
On target shareContext
32%
9.62
Shots in the boxContext
7.77
60%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.73
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.00
Shots allowedContext
16.85
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.92
2.08
BlocksContext
4.54
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
67%
Save rateContext
68%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
377
345
Accurate passesContext
300
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.92
FoulsContext
8.00
12.46
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.60
ShotsContext
11.90
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
39%
On target shareContext
30%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
56%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.40
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
2.30
BlocksContext
4.40
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
59%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
406
PassesContext
389
320
Accurate passesContext
311
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.40
FoulsContext
8.50
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 189 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4T. Quintero
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6J. Baas
11S. Mito
10L. Duijvestijn
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | L 1–5 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 1–6 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 33 · 1.64 per game | 13 of 33 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins2 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 6 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 24 Feb 2024NEC Nijmegen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 Sep 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.54 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 4.23 | 3.08 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 54% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 62% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.70 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.69 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 10.84 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 92% 12/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.62 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.69 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.30league 3.34
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+35%league 32%
Fouls22.3league 22.1
Penalties0.26league 0.28
Home wins48%league 48%
NEC Nijmegen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L5 Oct 24A · NAC Breda0–11
- D28 Jan 24A · GO Ahead Eagles2–24
Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Mar 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–01
- L30 Nov 24A · PEC Zwolle0–12
- D22 Oct 23A · GO Ahead Eagles0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen13 games · scored 33 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
8
2
61-75
9
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam13 games · scored 15 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
8
61-75
4
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
