NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Twente. NEC Nijmegen had 12.9 days of rest, Twente 13.2 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days12.9 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen43%
Draw25%
Twente31%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Draw27%
Twente32%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Draw26%
Twente32%
NEC Nijmegen36%
Draw26%
Twente39%
NEC Nijmegen43%
Draw26%
Twente31%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 36
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
37
AttackIn forecast
41
33
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenTwente
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
63%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.75
ShotsContext
18.00
7.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
44%
On target shareContext
38%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.63
61%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.75
Shots allowedContext
10.38
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.00
BlocksContext
3.63
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
64%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
439
PassesContext
457
354
Accurate passesContext
365
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.63
FoulsContext
11.88
13.88
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
100%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.70
ShotsContext
16.50
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
45%
On target shareContext
38%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
61%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.30
BlocksContext
3.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
67%
Save rateContext
58%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
432
PassesContext
451
347
Accurate passesContext
364
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km101 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 13.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 101 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
5T. Ouwejan
4A. Kaplan
14E. Dasa
6D. Nejašmić
7V. Misidjan
10T. Chery
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
7M. Pjaca
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Twente-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Twente · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 0–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws2 Twente wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 23 Feb 2025Twente2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 10 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Twente
- 20 Jan 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0Twente
- 11 Nov 2023Twente3–3NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.13 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 63% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.13 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 63% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.13 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.13 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 5.01 | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.70 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.51
Red cards0.11league 0.24
Cards 5+22%league 36%
Fouls19.5league 22.2
Penalties0.17league 0.21
Home wins56%league 50%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.0.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Jan 25H · Fortuna Sittard4–10
- W19 Oct 24H · Heerenveen3–00
- W3 Feb 24H · Heracles3–11
- L3 Dec 23H · Ajax1–20
- D7 Oct 23A · Heerenveen1–10
Twente3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 May 25H · Utrecht2–00
- W9 Mar 25H · Almere City FC1–00
- L18 Feb 24H · Utrecht0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen8 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Twente8 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 27 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
8
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
