Newcastle vs Liverpool – 25 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 25 · 20:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 15th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–3Full time

Liverpool 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 79). Newcastle had 9.3 days of rest, Liverpool 10 and had to travel 195 km.

Away travel195 kmRest days9.3 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle29%

Draw25%

Liverpool46%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.70

Newcastle29%

Draw27%

Liverpool44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

Newcastle30%

Draw25%

Liverpool45%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.66

Newcastle23%

Draw23%

Liverpool54%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.90

Newcastle29%

Draw26%

Liverpool44%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.54

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 125

Team strength

Newcastle

Liverpool

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

61 AttackIn forecast 85

61 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Liverpool

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

70% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.30 ShotsContext 17.40

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

33% On target shareContext 33%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

68% Box shareContext 75%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.22

9.70 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.88

2.78 BlocksContext 2.50

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

78% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 60%

457 PassesContext 519

387 Accurate passesContext 445

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.12 Team ratingContext 7.08

9.50 FoulsContext 10.00

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest9.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km555 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel195 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.3Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug	10Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	555 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

21V. Livramento 33D. Burn 5F. Schär 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

11H. Barnes 10A. Gordon 20A. Elanga

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 8D. Szoboszlai

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

22H. Ekitiké

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Liverpool+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home No home games yet this season.

Liverpool · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Newcastle wins3 draws7 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%

26 Feb 2025Liverpool2–0Newcastle
4 Dec 2024Newcastle3–3Liverpool
1 Jan 2024Liverpool4–2Newcastle
27 Aug 2023Newcastle1–2Liverpool
18 Feb 2023Newcastle0–2Liverpool
31 Aug 2022Liverpool2–1Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	4.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	0.00	6.00	3.02
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Newcastle	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	4.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	0.00	6.00	3.02
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.00
Corners conceded	3.00	7.00
Match total	9.00	13.00	9.32
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.42
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Newcastle	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	7.11
Corners conceded	5.20	3.22
Match total	11.50	10.33	9.32
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.30
Opponent cards	2.60	1.70
Match total	4.20	3.00	3.42
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 125 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.32

Red cards0.05league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 37%

Fouls21.6league 21.2

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins50%league 53%

Newcastle13 with this referee

Record4-2-7 Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.2 Pens for · against2 · 0

L18 May 25A · Arsenal0–13
W30 Dec 24A · Manchester United2–01
L7 Dec 24A · Brentford2–40
L27 Oct 24A · Chelsea1–23
W19 May 24A · Brentford4–24

Liverpool10 with this referee

Record6-1-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

L4 May 25A · Chelsea1–32
W16 Feb 25H · Wolves2–12
W5 Oct 24A · Crystal Palace1–02
D13 May 24A · Aston Villa3–31
W6 Dec 23A · Sheffield Utd2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.