Nice vs Lens – 2 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 20:05 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice 15th · 30 pts · 31 played LLDDD

1–1Full time

Lens 2nd · 63 pts · 30 played LWLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were slight favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Nice had 6 days of rest, Lens 8 and had to travel 820 km.

Away travel820 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Nice23%

Draw23%

Lens54%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.97

Nice27%

Draw26%

Lens47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.58

Nice23%

Draw23%

Lens54%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.96

Nice17%

Draw21%

Lens62%

Expected goals 1.10 – 2.21

Nice24%

Draw23%

Lens53%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.97

Over 2.5 62% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceThomas Leonard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 89

Team strength

Nice

Lens

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

26 AttackIn forecast 63

35 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Lens

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.07

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

68% Scored inContext 83%

16% Clean sheetsContext 33%

10.39 ShotsContext 15.90

3.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

37% On target shareContext 34%

6.63 Shots in the boxContext 11.14

62% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.12 OffsidesContext 2.68

14.35 Shots allowedContext 10.57

5.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

3.74 BlocksContext 3.34

3.54 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

65% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

407 PassesContext 459

337 Accurate passesContext 392

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.23 FoulsContext 12.57

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.97

2.03 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 31 and 30 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 2.17

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.40 ShotsContext 20.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

36% On target shareContext 30%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 14.00

65% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.10 Shots allowedContext 9.20

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.50 BlocksContext 2.50

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

57% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

381 PassesContext 485

310 Accurate passesContext 421

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.80 FoulsContext 10.10

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,974 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lens

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel820 km1,151 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr	8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	820 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,974 km	1,151 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

5-4-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 28A. Bah 33A. Mendy 20T. Louchet

10S. Diop 8M. Sanson 6H. Boudaoui 32K. Boudache

25M. Cho

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 25P. Ganiou

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 23S. Abdulhamid

9A. Saint-Maximin 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice-0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lens+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home 1.20points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-6-5
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.73

Lens · Away 1.60points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-5
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nice	Lens
Marseille	D 1–1 AL 1–5 H	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Lille	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	L 0–3 AW 3–0 H
LE Havre	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
Strasbourg	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–4 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Angers	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H	W 5–1 HW 2–1 A
Rennes	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A	W 3–1 HD 0–0 A
Paris FC	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H
Lorient	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 AW 3–0 H
Lyon	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H	L 0–1 H
Monaco	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A	D 3–3 AW 3–1 H
Nantes	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Toulouse	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A
Metz	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Auxerre	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
Points	30 of 90 · 1.00 per game	60 of 87 · 2.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Nice wins2 draws2 Lens wins

Goals per game1.11 – 0.78 Over 2.533% Both scored22% Clean sheets56% · 44%

14 Dec 2025Lens2–0Nice
8 Feb 2025Nice2–0Lens
28 Sep 2024Lens0–0Nice
16 Mar 2024Lens1–3Nice
20 Dec 2023Nice2–0Lens
1 Feb 2023Lens0–1Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	2.00
Conceded per game	1.84	1.07
Match goals	2.97	3.07	3.21
Over 1.5	77%	83%
Over 2.5	52%	70%	62%
Over 3.5	45%	30%
Both teams scored	58%	53%	61%
Clean sheets	16%	33%
Failed to score	32%	17%
Games	31	30

	Nice	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.60
Match goals	2.70	4.20	3.21
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	90%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.18
Corners conceded	5.50	3.50
Match total	10.20	9.68	9.22
Over 8.5	70% 21/30	61% 17/28
Over 9.5	63% 19/30	50% 14/28
Over 10.5	47% 14/30	32% 9/28
Cards
Cards	2.13	1.93
Opponent cards	1.97	2.23
Match total	4.10	4.16	3.94
Over 3.5	58% 18/31	60% 18/30
Over 4.5	35% 11/31	43% 13/30

	Nice	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	7.00
Corners conceded	5.20	2.44
Match total	9.60	9.44	9.22
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.00
Match total	3.90	3.80	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.56league 3.68

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls24.0league 23.7

Penalties0.26league 0.37

Home wins39%league 46%

Nice10 with this referee

Record3-1-6 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds2

L4 Apr 26A · Strasbourg1–31
L15 Feb 26A · Lyon0–21
L16 Aug 25H · Toulouse0–12
D2 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–12
W20 Sep 24H · Saint Etienne8–00

Lens11 with this referee

Record7-2-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L14 Mar 26A · Lorient1–23
W8 Mar 25A · Marseille1–01
W18 Aug 24A · Angers1–00
D19 May 24H · Montpellier2–20
W27 May 23H · Ajaccio3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.