Nice vs Lorient – 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice

0–0Full time

Lorient

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lorient. Nice had 97 days of rest, Lorient 97 and had to travel 939 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel939 kmRest days97 · 97Matches / 14d0 · 0

Nice39%

Draw27%

Lorient35%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.25

Nice40%

Draw26%

Lorient34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Nice39%

Draw27%

Lorient35%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.25

Nice32%

Draw26%

Lorient42%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.41

Nice39%

Draw26%

Lorient35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.29

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 66%

Warm

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 56

Team strength

Nice

Lorient

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

26 AttackIn forecast 28

35 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Lorient

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.50 ShotsContext 9.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

32% On target shareContext 40%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 4.89

64% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.70 OffsidesContext 1.89

13.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

60% Save rateContext 74%

42% PossessionIn forecast 45%

375 PassesContext 407

304 Accurate passesContext 348

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.20 FoulsContext 9.00

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest97 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest97 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel939 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	97Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May	97Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	939 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

23Y. Diouf(G)

35X. Mandza Tsiendi 55Y. Ndayishimiye 33A. Mendy

26M. Bard 87E. Pereira da Silva 39D. Coulibaly 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 7G. Hein

44Z. Diallo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

32N. Adjei 3M. Talbi 20D. Sylla

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 11T. Le Bris

17J. Makengo 33Gabin Bernardeau

42Mamadou Koné

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lorient+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home No home games yet this season.

Lorient · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Nice wins3 draws2 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.38 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

22 Feb 2026Nice3–3Lorient
30 Nov 2025Lorient3–1Nice
19 Apr 2024Nice3–0Lorient
20 Aug 2023Lorient1–1Nice
19 Mar 2023Nice1–1Lorient
30 Oct 2022Lorient1–2Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.58
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	48%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nice	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.40
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nice	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.50
Corners conceded	5.10	5.80
Match total	9.90	9.30	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	3.00	3.90	3.50
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 2.50

Red cards0.34league 1.00

Cards 5+38%league 0%

Fouls25.8league 22.5

Penalties0.36league 2.00

Home wins54%league 100%

Nice7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

L8 Mar 26H · Rennes0–42
L30 Nov 25A · Lorient1–32
W8 Feb 25H · Lens2–01
L18 Aug 24A · Auxerre1–20
D1 Oct 23H · Stade Brestois 290–01

Lorient10 with this referee

Record4-0-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds2

W30 Nov 25H · Nice3–11
L30 Aug 25H · Lille1–73
L7 Apr 24A · Montpellier0–26
W4 Feb 24A · Metz2–11
L12 Nov 23A · Clermont Foot0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.