Nice
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nice37.8%fair odds 2.64
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Lorient34.3%fair odds 2.91
Expected goals1.33 – 1.25total 2.58
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nice ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nice goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.54
- 1–09.4%10.66
- 0–18.8%11.34
- 2–18.4%11.96
- 0–08.2%12.15
- 1–27.9%12.67
- 2–06.7%14.99
- 0–25.9%16.82
- 2–25.2%19.08
- 3–13.7%27.02
Winning margin
6.2%
Nice by 3+
fair 16.15
11.2%
Nice by 2
fair 8.90
20.4%
Nice by 1
fair 4.90
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
19.2%
Lorient by 1
fair 5.20
10.0%
Lorient by 2
fair 9.99
5.1%
Lorient by 3+
fair 19.60
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Nice goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Lorient goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice win | 37.8% | 38.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Lorient win | 34.3% | 34.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 49.6% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.2% | 54.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Nice | 1.33 | 1.37 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.25 | 1.29 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nice win37.8%2.64
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Lorient win34.3%2.91
- Double chance Nice or draw65.7%1.52
- Double chance Nice or Lorient72.2%1.39
- Double chance Lorient or draw62.2%1.61
- Draw no bet Nice52.4%1.91
- Draw no bet Lorient47.6%2.10
Goals
- Over 0.591.8%1.09
- Over 1.573.6%1.36
- Over 2.547.7%2.10
- Over 3.526.0%3.85
- Over 4.512.0%8.34
- Under 1.526.4%3.78
- Under 2.552.3%1.91
- Under 3.574.0%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes53.2%1.88
- No46.8%2.14
- Yes and over 2.539.9%2.50
- Nice win and yes17.5%5.71
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Lorient win and yes16.1%6.22
Team goals
- Nice over 0.573.5%1.36
- Nice over 1.538.3%2.61
- Nice over 2.514.9%6.70
- Lorient over 0.571.5%1.40
- Lorient over 1.535.7%2.80
- Lorient over 2.513.2%7.56
- Nice clean sheet28.5%3.50
- Lorient clean sheet26.5%3.77
- Nice win to nil20.3%4.92
- Lorient win to nil18.3%5.47
Handicap
- Nice −1.517.4%5.74
- Nice −2.56.2%16.15
- Lorient +1.582.6%1.21
- Lorient +2.593.8%1.07
- Lorient −1.515.1%6.62
- Nice +1.584.9%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result57.5%
1X2 Brier0.281
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 49.5% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.