Nice vs Monaco – 8 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 21 Sun, Feb 8 · 14:00 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice 13th · 22 pts · 20 played LDLWD

0–0Full time

Monaco 10th · 27 pts · 20 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Monaco were slight favourites.

Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Nice had 6.9 days of rest, Monaco 7.7 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Nice29%

Draw27%

Monaco44%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.45

Nice34%

Draw27%

Monaco39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Nice29%

Draw28%

Monaco43%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.42

Nice23%

Draw26%

Monaco51%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.62

Nice29%

Draw27%

Monaco44%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.46

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 116

Team strength

Nice

Monaco

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

26 AttackIn forecast 45

35 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Monaco

1.35 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

80% Scored inContext 75%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.25 ShotsContext 12.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.95

37% On target shareContext 33%

7.26 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

62% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.82 OffsidesContext 3.27

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.35 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

4.45 BlocksContext 3.55

3.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

68% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

423 PassesContext 466

355 Accurate passesContext 392

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.55 FoulsContext 13.15

12.35 Fouls sufferedContext 11.45

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

60% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.10 ShotsContext 12.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

34% On target shareContext 36%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

68% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.63 OffsidesContext 4.00

14.60 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13

3.30 BlocksContext 3.20

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

66% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 49%

437 PassesContext 422

363 Accurate passesContext 350

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.70 FoulsContext 13.10

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,674 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Monaco

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Monaco
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,674 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	5.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31M. Dupé(G)

2A. Abdi 4Dante 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 92J. Clauss

24C. Vanhoutte 8M. Sanson

20T. Louchet 10S. Diop 23Gabin Bernardeau

11S. Wahi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Monaco Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16P. Köhn(G)

5J. Kehrer 6D. Zakaria 4J. Teze

24S. Adingra 23Aladji Bamba 15M. Camara 27K. Diatta

10A. Golovin 11M. Akliouche

9F. Balogun

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Monaco Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice-0.1 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Monaco+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.40

Monaco · Away 0.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nice	Monaco
Stade Brestois 29	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A	L 0–1 A
Nantes	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H	W 5–3 A
Toulouse	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Strasbourg	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 H
Lens	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 H
Angers	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Lorient	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A
Marseille	L 1–5 H	L 0–1 A
Metz	L 1–2 A	W 5–2 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Lille	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Rennes	W 2–1 A	W 4–0 HL 1–4 A
Lyon	W 3–2 H	L 1–3 H
Paris FC	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
LE Havre	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Auxerre	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Points	21 of 57 · 1.11 per game	26 of 57 · 1.37 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Nice wins2 draws4 Monaco wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 22%

5 Oct 2025Monaco2–2Nice
29 Mar 2025Monaco2–1Nice
27 Oct 2024Nice2–1Monaco
11 Feb 2024Nice2–3Monaco
22 Sep 2023Monaco0–1Nice
26 Feb 2023Monaco0–3Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	1.35	1.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.65
Match goals	3.25	3.25	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	65%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	50%	55%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	25%
Games	20	20

	Nice	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.70
Match goals	3.00	2.60	2.58
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	4.74	4.70
Corners conceded	5.63	3.85
Match total	10.37	8.55	9.15
Over 8.5	79% 15/19	50% 10/20
Over 9.5	68% 13/19	40% 8/20
Over 10.5	47% 9/19	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	2.35	2.50
Opponent cards	1.85	1.75
Match total	4.20	4.25	3.98
Over 3.5	60% 12/20	55% 11/20
Over 4.5	40% 8/20	40% 8/20

	Nice	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.22
Corners conceded	4.70	3.44
Match total	10.20	8.66	9.15
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.50
Match total	4.10	3.90	3.98
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 116 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.64

Red cards0.22league 0.32

Cards 5+47%league 36%

Fouls24.5league 24.2

Penalties0.42league 0.42

Home wins53%league 49%

Nice10 with this referee

Record5-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

L20 Sep 25A · Stade Brestois 291–43
L9 Mar 25H · Lyon0–21
W24 Nov 24H · Strasbourg2–12
W10 May 24H · LE Havre1–02
W16 Mar 24A · Lens3–13

Monaco14 with this referee

Record5-3-6 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 4

W31 Aug 25H · Strasbourg3–22
W10 May 25H · Lyon2–02
W12 Apr 25H · Marseille3–02
L22 Feb 25A · Lille1–22
L18 Feb 24H · Toulouse1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.