Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 24). Nice had 13 days of rest, Nantes 13.9 and had to travel 790 km.
Away travel790 kmRest days13 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice56%
Draw24%
Nantes19%
Nice57%
Draw24%
Nantes19%
Nice57%
Draw24%
Nantes19%
Nice49%
Draw26%
Nantes25%
Nice56%
Draw24%
Nantes20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Nice
Nantes
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
26
AttackIn forecast
24
35
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceNantes
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.30
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
67%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.00
ShotsContext
6.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
33%
On target shareContext
28%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.33
49%
Box shareContext
48%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.33
Shots allowedContext
15.67
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.00
BlocksContext
6.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
71%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
457
PassesContext
370
395
Accurate passesContext
295
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.67
FoulsContext
9.33
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
7.70
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
62%
Box shareContext
54%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.20
BlocksContext
4.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
421
PassesContext
370
356
Accurate passesContext
301
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.00
FoulsContext
11.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,688 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Nantes
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel790 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 790 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,688 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
4Dante
92J. Clauss
6H. Boudaoui
24C. Vanhoutte
26M. Bard
10S. Diop
7J. Boga
90Kevin Carlos
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
98K. Amian
6C. Awaziem
78Tylel Tati
3N. Cozza
80J. Mwanga
90Y. Benhattab
7H. Hong
8J. Lepenant
10M. Abline
31M. Abdalla
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Nantes+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nantes · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Nice wins3 draws3 Nantes wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 4 Apr 2025Nice1–2Nantes
- 20 Oct 2024Nantes1–1Nice
- 31 Mar 2024Nice1–2Nantes
- 2 Dec 2023Nantes1–0Nice
- 12 Mar 2023Nantes2–2Nice
- 23 Oct 2022Nice1–1Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Nice | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.34 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.33 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 3/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Nice | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.20 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.43
Red cards0.00league 0.36
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls33.0league 23.2
Penalties1.00league 0.50
Home wins0%league 68%
NiceNo previous matches with this referee.
NantesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice3 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nantes3 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
