Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nice
15th · 27 pts · 26 played
LDLLW
0–4Full time
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 57 pts · 25 played
WLWWL
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nice. Nice had 7.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 15 and had to travel 686 km.
Away travel686 kmRest days7.1 · 15Matches / 14d2 · 0
Nice10%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain73%
Nice10%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain72%
Nice10%
Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain73%
Nice7%
Draw13%
Paris Saint Germain80%
Nice11%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 106
Team strength
NiceParis Saint Germain
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
26
AttackIn forecast
91
35
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceParis Saint Germain
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.16
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
69%
Scored inContext
92%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
10.96
ShotsContext
17.24
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.44
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.04
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
62%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.46
Shots allowedContext
8.28
5.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.04
BlocksContext
2.71
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.42
66%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
423
PassesContext
708
353
Accurate passesContext
647
84%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.19
FoulsContext
9.88
11.62
Fouls sufferedContext
9.04
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
0.92
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
2.15
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.70
ShotsContext
17.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
65%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.30
BlocksContext
3.11
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
69%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
411
PassesContext
651
334
Accurate passesContext
590
81%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.20
FoulsContext
9.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,476 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel686 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 686 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,476 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
28A. Bah
4Dante
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
6H. Boudaoui
55Y. Ndayishimiye
8M. Sanson
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
11S. Wahi
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
24S. Mayulu
17Vitinha
19K. Lee
25Nuno Mendes
7K. Kvaratskhelia
14D. Doué
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.62
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-3
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–4 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A | W 3–0 A |
| Nantes | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | W 6–3 A |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Lens | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Marseille | L 1–5 H | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game | 54 of 72 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Nice wins2 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 1 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Nice
- 25 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain1–3Nice
- 6 Oct 2024Nice1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 15 May 2024Nice1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain2–3Nice
- 8 Apr 2023Nice0–2Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 2.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.04 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 56% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 8% | |
| Games | 26 | 25 |
| Nice | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.84 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.76 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.47 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 20/25 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 72% 18/25 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 13% 3/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 0.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 2.68 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 24% 6/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 8% 2/25 | |
| Nice | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.40 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 2.50 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.72
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls24.6league 23.8
Penalties0.40league 0.37
Home wins42%league 49%
Nice12 with this referee
Record7-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds3
- L14 Dec 25A · Lens0–22
- D5 Oct 25A · Monaco2–23
- W25 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–11
- W23 Feb 25H · Montpellier2–01
- W11 Jan 25A · Reims4–22
Paris Saint Germain17 with this referee
Record10-4-3
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 3
- W8 Feb 26H · Marseille5–02
- D29 Oct 25A · Lorient1–12
- L25 Apr 25H · Nice1–33
- W15 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–00
- W2 Nov 24H · Lens1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice26 games · scored 32 · conceded 48
4
9
0-15
6
5
16-30
8
9
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
4
10
76-90
Paris Saint Germain25 games · scored 54 · conceded 22
8
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
11
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
11
3
61-75
12
5
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 26 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
