Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 29). Absences weigh more on Nice. Nice had 7.1 days of rest, Rennes 8 and had to travel 847 km.
Away travel847 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nice31%
Draw27%
Rennes43%
Nice32%
Draw27%
Rennes41%
Nice32%
Draw27%
Rennes41%
Nice24%
Draw26%
Rennes50%
Nice31%
Draw27%
Rennes42%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 54
Team strength
Nice
Rennes
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
26
AttackIn forecast
63
35
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceRennes
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
71%
Scored inContext
79%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.04
ShotsContext
12.67
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.09
Shots in the boxContext
7.87
62%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.79
OffsidesContext
2.35
14.83
Shots allowedContext
13.04
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.21
BlocksContext
4.09
3.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
68%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
421
PassesContext
459
352
Accurate passesContext
389
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.33
FoulsContext
12.13
11.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
68%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.50
BlocksContext
3.20
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
416
PassesContext
464
340
Accurate passesContext
393
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.90
FoulsContext
13.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel847 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 847 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,372 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
92J. Clauss
24C. Vanhoutte
6H. Boudaoui
20T. Louchet
8M. Sanson
25M. Cho
10S. Diop
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
18M. Nagida
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
70A. Nordin
9E. Lepaul
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rennes+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.42
Rennes · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lorient | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Marseille | L 1–5 H | W 1–0 H |
| Metz | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 69 · 0.91 per game | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Nice wins1 draws3 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 26 Oct 2025Rennes1–2Nice
- 10 May 2025Rennes2–0Nice
- 3 Jan 2025Nice3–2Rennes
- 13 Jan 2024Rennes2–0Nice
- 5 Nov 2023Nice2–0Rennes
- 6 May 2023Nice2–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.04 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 54% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 21% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Nice | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.91 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 10.69 | 10.00 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 19/23 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 74% 17/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 4.00 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Nice | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 10.60 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.71
Red cards0.35league 0.29
Cards 5+39%league 36%
Fouls26.0league 24.0
Penalties0.35league 0.38
Home wins54%league 49%
Nice6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L30 Nov 25A · Lorient1–32
- W8 Feb 25H · Lens2–01
- L18 Aug 24A · Auxerre1–20
- D1 Oct 23H · Stade Brestois 290–01
- W20 Feb 22H · Angers1–02
Rennes4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L16 Feb 25H · Lille0–23
- L10 Nov 24H · Toulouse0–23
- W18 Feb 24H · Clermont Foot3–11
- W9 Apr 22A · Reims3–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice24 games · scored 30 · conceded 44
4
8
0-15
6
4
16-30
8
9
31-45
6
7
46-60
3
7
61-75
3
9
76-90
Rennes24 games · scored 38 · conceded 35
3
4
0-15
11
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
10
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
