Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 32). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Nice had 4.2 days of rest, SC Braga 4.9 and had to travel 1,304 km.
Away travel1,304 kmRest days4.2 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Nice25%
Draw25%
SC Braga50%
Nice26%
Draw26%
SC Braga48%
Nice25%
Draw25%
SC Braga50%
Nice19%
Draw23%
SC Braga57%
Nice26%
Draw26%
SC Braga48%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiorgi Kruashvili
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
Nice
SC Braga
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
26
AttackIn forecast
42
35
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceSC Braga
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.20
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
25%
On target shareContext
38%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
66%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
8.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
5.20
BlocksContext
2.50
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
59%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
383
PassesContext
468
312
Accurate passesContext
394
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.80
FoulsContext
10.80
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.20
ShotsContext
13.80
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
30%
On target shareContext
37%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
65%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.70
Shots allowedContext
7.80
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.90
BlocksContext
3.43
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
71%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
400
PassesContext
554
336
Accurate passesContext
483
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.70
FoulsContext
12.30
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,541 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
SC Braga
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,304 km3,417 km in 14d
Schedule load37%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Moderate · 37 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,541 km | 3,417 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
2A. Abdi
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
47Tiago Gouveia
22T. Ndombélé
99S. Abdul Samed
20T. Louchet
21I. Jansson
90Kevin Carlos
49Bernard Nguene
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
6Vitor Carvalho
5Leonardo Lelo
27F. Grillitsch
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
9A. El Ouazzani
18Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- SC Braga-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
SC Braga · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nice | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.20 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Nice | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.22 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.60 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giorgi Kruashvili 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 4.11
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 43%
Fouls23.3league 24.6
Penalties0.11league 0.38
Home wins56%league 51%
NiceNo previous matches with this referee.
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Aug 24H · Servette FC0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice5 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
SC Braga5 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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