Nice vs Strasbourg – 3 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 3 · 18:00 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice 13th · 17 pts · 16 played LLLLL

1–1Full time

Strasbourg 7th · 23 pts · 16 played WLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were slight favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 30). Absences weigh more on Nice. Nice had 20.1 days of rest, Strasbourg 20.1 and had to travel 544 km.

Away travel544 kmRest days20.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Nice31%

Draw27%

Strasbourg42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.50

Nice33%

Draw27%

Strasbourg40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Nice32%

Draw27%

Strasbourg40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.43

Nice25%

Draw25%

Strasbourg50%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.68

Nice32%

Draw27%

Strasbourg41%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.48

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 129

Team strength

Nice

Strasbourg

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

26 AttackIn forecast 40

35 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Strasbourg

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.81 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

75% Scored inContext 81%

13% Clean sheetsContext 44%

10.63 ShotsContext 10.50

3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

37% On target shareContext 38%

6.53 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

59% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 15%

1.92 OffsidesContext 1.73

15.13 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.69 BlocksContext 3.27

3.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 70%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

417 PassesContext 520

351 Accurate passesContext 459

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.25 FoulsContext 11.44

12.19 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.19

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.30 ShotsContext 10.70

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

31% On target shareContext 37%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

64% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.60

13.70 Shots allowedContext 10.40

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.00 BlocksContext 4.17

4.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

70% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 59%

413 PassesContext 587

348 Accurate passesContext 526

84% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.90 FoulsContext 8.70

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Strasbourg

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel544 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec	20.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	14	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31M. Dupé(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 28A. Bah 92J. Clauss

41E. Pereira da Silva

10S. Diop 22T. Ndombélé 8M. Sanson 47Tiago Gouveia

25M. Cho

+13 more reported missing outside this XI

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 6I. Doukouré 24L. Høgsberg 42A. Ouattara

32V. Barco 29S. El Mourabet

20B. Godo 19J. Enciso 7Diego Moreira

9J. Panichelli

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Strasbourg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice-1.3 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Strasbourg+1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home 1.63points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-3
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.38

Strasbourg · Away 0.88points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-5
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nice	Strasbourg
Lens	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Angers	L 0–1 H	W 5–0 H
Lorient	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 H
Marseille	L 1–5 H	L 1–2 H
Metz	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 A
Lille	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Rennes	W 2–1 A	L 1–4 A
Lyon	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 A
Monaco	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 A
Paris FC	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	L 1–4 A	L 1–2 H
Nantes	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
LE Havre	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 H
Auxerre	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 H
Toulouse	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	17 of 48 · 1.06 per game	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Nice wins3 draws2 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 38%

12 Apr 2025Strasbourg2–2Nice
24 Nov 2024Nice2–1Strasbourg
28 Apr 2024Strasbourg1–3Nice
3 Sep 2023Nice2–0Strasbourg
13 May 2023Strasbourg2–0Nice
14 Aug 2022Nice1–1Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	1.56
Conceded per game	1.81	1.25
Match goals	3.00	2.81	2.76
Over 1.5	75%	63%
Over 2.5	56%	56%	52%
Over 3.5	44%	31%
Both teams scored	63%	44%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	44%
Failed to score	25%	19%
Games	16	16

	Nice	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.60
Conceded per game	2.10	1.30
Match goals	2.70	2.90	2.76
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	3.40
Corners conceded	5.67	3.87
Match total	10.34	7.27	9.33
Over 8.5	80% 12/15	27% 4/15
Over 9.5	67% 10/15	20% 3/15
Over 10.5	40% 6/15	20% 3/15
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.19
Opponent cards	1.81	1.81
Match total	4.06	4.00	4.08
Over 3.5	63% 10/16	69% 11/16
Over 4.5	38% 6/16	31% 5/16

	Nice	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.44
Corners conceded	5.10	4.22
Match total	9.40	8.66	9.33
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	4.10	3.80	4.08
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 129 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.25league 3.71

Red cards0.24league 0.34

Cards 5+29%league 36%

Fouls23.1league 24.2

Penalties0.35league 0.47

Home wins40%league 51%

Nice10 with this referee

Record5-4-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D15 Dec 24A · Montpellier2–22
W2 Nov 24A · Stade Brestois 291–02
L16 Feb 24A · Lyon0–11
W5 Nov 23H · Rennes2–01
W15 Sep 23A · Paris Saint Germain3–25

Strasbourg14 with this referee

Record5-6-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds3

D17 Oct 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–31
L10 May 25A · Angers1–22
W6 Apr 25A · Reims1–03
D23 Feb 25H · Stade Brestois 290–03
L10 Mar 24H · Monaco0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.