Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nice. Nice were without A. Mendy. Strasbourg were without Oso and I. Doukouré. Nice had 20.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 21.9 and had to travel 544 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel544 kmRest days20.9 · 21.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Nice32%
Draw24%
Strasbourg43%
Nice30%
Draw26%
Strasbourg44%
Nice32%
Draw24%
Strasbourg44%
Nice26%
Draw23%
Strasbourg51%
Nice32%
Draw24%
Strasbourg43%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
23°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 61%
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 106
Team strength
Nice
Strasbourg
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
26
AttackIn forecast
40
35
DefenceIn forecast
37
23
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceStrasbourg
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.38
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+1.08
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
25%
On target shareContext
41%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
17%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
17.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.20
BlocksContext
5.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
576
PassesContext
452
505
Accurate passesContext
391
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.60
FoulsContext
11.60
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.70
ShotsContext
11.60
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
26%
On target shareContext
42%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
63%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.20
Shots allowedContext
17.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.60
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
70%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
479
PassesContext
465
407
Accurate passesContext
402
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.20
FoulsContext
10.20
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
DLDLW
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Strasbourg
LWWDL
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel544 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 544 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
28A. Witsel
39D. Coulibaly
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
31Karim Coulibaly
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
14Dário Essugo
21Pape Diop
23Diogo Sousa
80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder
7S. Amo-Ameyaw
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −3.8% · Defence line −9.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Mendy Starter 6.65 Def −7.3%
- MID M. Sanson Rotation 6.59 Att −3.8% Def −1.6%
Strasbourg
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −31.9% · Defence line −7.2% of weighted minutes
- ATT Oso Starter 6.77 Att −17.6%
- DEF I. Doukouré Starter 6.56 Def −7.2%
- ATT M. Godo Starter 7.09 Att −9.9%
- ATT J. Panichelli Rotation 6.80 Att −4.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Strasbourg-0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Strasbourg · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Nice wins4 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 4 Apr 2026Strasbourg3–1Nice
- 3 Jan 2026Nice1–1Strasbourg
- 12 Apr 2025Strasbourg2–2Nice
- 24 Nov 2024Nice2–1Strasbourg
- 28 Apr 2024Strasbourg1–3Nice
- 3 Sep 2023Nice2–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 4.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nice | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 4.20 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Nice | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.43 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 3.22
Red cards0.29league 0.16
Cards 5+53%league 27%
Fouls22.4league 23.8
Penalties0.38league 0.33
Home wins44%league 45%
Nice13 with this referee
Record3-5-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D5 Sep 26H · Le Mans1–12
- D17 May 26H · Metz0–02
- L21 Nov 25H · Marseille1–52
- D12 Apr 25A · Strasbourg2–22
- W27 Oct 24H · Monaco2–12
Strasbourg12 with this referee
Record4-5-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 3
- D7 Mar 26A · Auxerre0–02
- W18 Jan 26H · Metz2–12
- L26 Sep 25H · Marseille1–22
- D12 Apr 25H · Nice2–21
- W16 Mar 24A · Nantes3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Strasbourg5 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
