Premier League Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 19 2026 · 14:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest
4–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.19 – 0.36
Burnley
  • M. Gibbs-White 62’, 69’, 77’
  • Igor Jesus 90’
  • 45’ Z. Flemming
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Gibbs-White hat-trick turns it around for Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest entered as clear favourites, yet Burnley led 1–0 at half-time through a Flemming goal. But Gibbs-White and Jesus scored to turn it around for Nottingham Forest, who won 4–1. Nottingham Forest finished with the higher xG (1.19 vs 0.36).

Nottingham Forest ✓65%
Draw20%
Burnley15%

Model vs reality

Nottingham Forest goals
4
Model 2.19 · xG 1.19
Burnley goals
1
Model 0.95 · xG 0.36
Total goals
5
Model 3.14 · xG 1.55
Score 4–1
4%
Most likely 2–0 (10%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 61%
Both scored
Yes
Model 55%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. Gibbs-WhiteNottingham Forest · 3 goals
10.0
  • RefereeThomas Kirk
  • VenueThe City Ground
  • Table before kick-offNottingham Forest 16th · Burnley 19th

Timeline

  1. ⇄ JairFor Murillo
    42’
  2. Z. Flemming 0–1Assist Q. Hartman
    45’
  3. Half time · 0–1
  4. ⇄ Igor JesusFor D. Bakwa
    46’
  5. M. Gibbs-White 1–1
    62’
  6. ⇄ L. FosterFor M. Edwards
    64’
  7. M. Gibbs-White 2–1Assist O. Hutchinson
    69’
  8. FlorentinoYellow card · Foul
    75’
  9. ⇄ R. YatesFor C. Wood
    76’
  10. ⇄ J. Bruun LarsenFor L. Ugochukwu
    76’
  11. M. Gibbs-White 3–1Assist R. Yates
    77’
  12. K. WalkerYellow card · Argument
    80’
  13. ⇄ L. TchaounaFor J. Anthony
    83’
  14. ⇄ J. LaurentFor Florentino
    83’
  15. ⇄ A. BrojaFor Z. Flemming
    84’
  16. ⇄ MoratoFor O. Hutchinson
    88’
  17. ⇄ N. DomínguezFor M. Gibbs-White
    89’
  18. Igor Jesus 4–1Assist N. Domínguez
    90’
  19. Full time · 4–1

Team stats

Nottingham Forest10 shots · 8 in box, 2 outside
Burnley4 shots · 3 in box, 1 outside
Nottingham ForestBurnley
51% Possession 49%
1.19 Expected goals (xG) 0.36
2.04 Expected points (xPts) 0.65
10 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 3
4 Shots off target 0
2 Blocked shots 1
8 Shots inside the box 3
2 Shots outside the box 1
474 Passes 453
82% Pass accuracy 82%
4 Corners 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.16 Team rating 6.20

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

266.6 M. Sels(G)
37.5 N. Williams 57.2 Murillo ↓42’ 315.9 N. Milenković 346.7 T. Aina
87.3 E. Anderson 67.3 I. Sangaré
216.9 O. Hutchinson A↓88’ 1010.0★ M. Gibbs-White ↓89’ 296.5 D. Bakwa ↓46’
116.5 C. Wood ↓76’
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.6
  • 3N. Williams7.5
  • 5Murillo↓42’7.2
  • 31N. Milenković5.9
  • 34T. Aina6.7
  • 8E. Anderson7.3
  • 6I. Sangaré7.3
  • 21O. HutchinsonA↓88’6.9
  • 10M. Gibbs-White ★↓89’10.0
  • 29D. Bakwa↓46’6.5
  • 11C. Wood↓76’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 22R. YatesA↑76’6.9
  • 19Igor Jesus↑46’7.9
  • 23Jair↑42’6.6
  • 16N. DomínguezA↑89’7.2
  • 4Morato↑88’6.6

Unused: S. Ortega, T. Awoniyi, L. Netz, J. McAtee

Burnley 4-2-3-1

15.3 M. Dúbravka(G)
36.5 Q. Hartman A 56.0 M. Estève 185.9 H. Ekdal 26.0 K. Walker
166.0 Florentino ↓83’ 206.2 J. Ward-Prowse
116.2 J. Anthony ↓83’ 86.2 L. Ugochukwu ↓76’ 106.7 M. Edwards ↓64’
197.3 Z. Flemming ↓84’
  • 1M. Dúbravka (G)5.3
  • 3Q. HartmanA6.5
  • 5M. Estève6.0
  • 18H. Ekdal5.9
  • 2K. Walker6.0
  • 16Florentino↓83’6.0
  • 20J. Ward-Prowse6.2
  • 11J. Anthony↓83’6.2
  • 8L. Ugochukwu↓76’6.2
  • 10M. Edwards↓64’6.7
  • 19Z. Flemming↓84’7.3

Substitutes used

  • 27A. Broja↑84’6.5
  • 17L. Tchaouna↑83’6.5
  • 29J. Laurent↑83’6.7
  • 7J. Bruun Larsen↑76’6.5
  • 9L. Foster↑64’6.0

Unused: Max Weiss, M. Trésor, J. Worrall, B. Humphreys

Player stats

Top rated
M. Gibbs-WhiteNottingham Forest10.0
2nd
Igor JesusNottingham Forest7.9
3rd
N. WilliamsNottingham Forest7.5

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 62% 21 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
N. Williams D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 80% 44 3 0 2/4 0/1 7.5
Murillo D 42 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 31 3 1 0/0 0/0 7.2
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 43 0 2 0/0 1/0 5.9
T. Aina D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 50 1 0 1/2 0/0 6.7
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 77 3 0 3/4 2/3 7.3
I. Sangaré M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 52 2 2 0/1 3/2 7.3
O. Hutchinson F 88 0 1 0 (0) 1 86% 29 1 0 3/3 0/1 6.9
M. Gibbs-White M 89 3 0 5 (3) 0 77% 30 2 0 0/2 0/1 10.0
D. Bakwa F 46 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 12 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.5
C. Wood F 76 0 0 1 (0) 1 62% 13 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.5
R. Yates M 14 0 1 0 (0) 1 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Igor Jesus F 44 1 0 1 (1) 0 93% 14 3 0 0/0 1/1 7.9
Jair D 48 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 30 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.6
N. Domínguez M 1 0 1 0 (0) 1 100% 13 3 0 0/0 1/0 7.2
Morato D 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 9 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6

Burnley

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Dúbravka G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 74% 47 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.3
Q. Hartman D 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 76% 51 4 3 0/0 1/0 6.5
M. Estève D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 37 4 0 0/1 0/0 6.0
H. Ekdal D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 52 0 0 0/0 0/1 5.9
K. Walker D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 52 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.0
Florentino M 83 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 33 5 2 0/3 4/0 6.0
J. Ward-Prowse M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 87% 67 0 4 0/2 0/1 6.2
J. Anthony F 83 0 0 0 (0) 1 77% 30 0 1 1/2 0/1 6.2
L. Ugochukwu M 76 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 17 1 1 1/1 1/0 6.2
M. Edwards F 64 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 18 3 0 0/1 0/2 6.7
Z. Flemming M 84 1 0 1 (1) 0 45% 11 1 1 0/0 4/3 7.3
A. Broja F 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
L. Tchaouna F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 73% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
J. Laurent M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 57% 7 2 1 0/0 0/0 6.7
J. Bruun Larsen F 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
L. Foster F 26 0 0 1 (1) 0 91% 11 1 0 0/1 1/0 6.0

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.