Nottingham Forest vs Burnley – 19 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 19 · 14:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 16th · 33 pts · 32 played LDDWD

4–1Full time

Burnley 19th · 20 pts · 32 played LLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were clear favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Burnley 8 and had to travel 118 km.

Away travel118 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Nottingham Forest65%

Draw20%

Burnley15%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.95

Nottingham Forest58%

Draw24%

Burnley19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Nottingham Forest66%

Draw20%

Burnley14%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.93

Nottingham Forest58%

Draw23%

Burnley20%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.06

Nottingham Forest64%

Draw21%

Burnley15%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.92

Over 2.5 61% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Kirk

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 37

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Burnley

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

68 AttackIn forecast 27

74 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Burnley

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.97

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

56% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.72 ShotsContext 9.28

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

31% On target shareContext 33%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 5.81

61% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.96

12.63 Shots allowedContext 16.66

4.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.66

4.38 BlocksContext 5.21

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.68

65% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 41%

411 PassesContext 379

339 Accurate passesContext 298

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.91 FoulsContext 9.91

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 9.06

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.60 ShotsContext 10.30

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

61% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.00 Shots allowedContext 15.80

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.20 BlocksContext 5.75

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

75% Save rateContext 56%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

432 PassesContext 397

359 Accurate passesContext 320

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.70 FoulsContext 9.60

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,855 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel118 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr	8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	118 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,855 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	3.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

21O. Hutchinson 10M. Gibbs-White 29D. Bakwa

11C. Wood

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 2K. Walker

16Florentino 20J. Ward-Prowse

11J. Anthony 8L. Ugochukwu 10M. Edwards

19Z. Flemming

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest-0.9 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Burnley+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.94points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 3-6-7
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 1.25

Burnley · Away 0.56points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-11
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 2.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Burnley
Aston Villa	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 A
Tottenham	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A
Fulham	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 AL 2–3 H
Manchester City	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	L 1–5 A
Brighton	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Wolves	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	W 3–2 A
Leeds	L 1–3 AW 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H	L 3–4 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–2 H
West Ham	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A
Everton	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–2 AD 0–0 H
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Points	32 of 93 · 1.03 per game	19 of 93 · 0.61 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws0 Burnley wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

20 Sep 2025Burnley1–1Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024Burnley1–2Nottingham Forest
18 Sep 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.03
Conceded per game	1.38	1.97
Match goals	2.38	3.00	3.14
Over 1.5	78%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	19%	38%
Both teams scored	41%	56%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	44%	38%
Games	32	32

	Nottingham Forest	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.10
Match goals	2.20	3.10	3.14
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	5.41	3.72
Corners conceded	4.84	5.88
Match total	10.25	9.60	10.06
Over 8.5	78% 25/32	59% 19/32
Over 9.5	63% 20/32	53% 17/32
Over 10.5	44% 14/32	38% 12/32
Cards
Cards	1.59	1.78
Opponent cards	1.81	1.22
Match total	3.40	3.00	3.90
Over 3.5	44% 14/32	41% 13/32
Over 4.5	22% 7/32	19% 6/32

	Nottingham Forest	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.10
Corners conceded	4.50	5.30
Match total	9.70	9.40	10.06
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	1.30
Match total	3.40	3.30	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Kirk 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.77

Red cards0.14league 0.12

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls21.7league 21.5

Penalties0.14league 0.22

Home wins41%league 41%

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

Burnley1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 Dec 25H · Crystal Palace0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.