UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 2026 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest
0–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 1.68 – 0.69
FC Midtjylland
  • 80’ G. Cho
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Cho goal decides it for FC Midtjylland

Nottingham Forest entered as favourites, but FC Midtjylland won 1–0 through a Cho goal. FC Midtjylland won despite the lower xG; Nottingham Forest created the better chances (1.68 vs 0.69). On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 2.1 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nottingham Forest53%
Draw24%
FC Midtjylland ✓23%

Model vs reality

Nottingham Forest goals
0
Model 1.81 · xG 1.68
FC Midtjylland goals
1
Model 1.14 · xG 0.69
Total goals
1
Model 2.95 · xG 2.37
Score 0–1
5%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 57%
Both scored
No
Model 57%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchP. BillingFC Midtjylland
8.2
  • RefereeRade Obrenovič
  • Coaches— · Mike Tullberg
  • VenueThe City Ground

Timeline

  1. ⇄ N. MilenkovićFor Jair
    9’
  2. MoratoYellow card · Roughing
    33’
  3. Half time · 0–0
  4. ⇄ V. ByskovFor D. Castillo
    46’
  5. ⇄ N. WilliamsFor Morato
    46’
  6. ⇄ M. UhreFor D. Şimşir
    57’
  7. ⇄ G. ChoFor Júnior Brumado
    57’
  8. ⇄ H. LeeFor M. Mbabu
    59’
  9. ⇄ I. SangaréFor N. Domínguez
    70’
  10. ⇄ L. LuccaFor Igor Jesus
    70’
  11. G. Cho 0–1Assist O. Diao
    80’
  12. ⇄ D. BakwaFor T. Aina
    82’
  13. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Nottingham Forest22 shots · 14 in box, 8 outside
FC Midtjylland6 shots · 3 in box, 3 outside
Nottingham ForestFC Midtjylland
57% Possession 43%
1.68 Expected goals (xG) 0.69
2.07 Expected points (xPts) 0.69
22 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 2
9 Shots off target 2
7 Blocked shots 2
14 Shots inside the box 3
8 Shots outside the box 3
500 Passes 368
83% Pass accuracy 76%
7 Corners 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 4
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
6.79 Team rating 6.88

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

266.2 M. Sels(G)
46.3 Morato ↓46’ 56.7 Murillo 236.5 Jair ↓9’
77.3 C. Hudson-Odoi 166.9 N. Domínguez ↓70’ 87.2 E. Anderson 346.3 T. Aina ↓82’
106.3 M. Gibbs-White 217.6 O. Hutchinson
197.0 Igor Jesus ↓70’
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.2
  • 4Morato↓46’6.3
  • 5Murillo6.7
  • 23Jair↓9’6.5
  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi7.3
  • 16N. Domínguez↓70’6.9
  • 8E. Anderson7.2
  • 34T. Aina↓82’6.3
  • 10M. Gibbs-White6.3
  • 21O. Hutchinson7.6
  • 19Igor Jesus↓70’7.0

Substitutes used

  • 31N. Milenković↑9’6.9
  • 3N. Williams↑46’6.6
  • 6I. Sangaré↑70’6.9
  • 20L. Lucca↑70’6.7
  • 29D. Bakwa↑82’6.3

Unused: Keehan Willows, A. Gunn, Z. Abbott, R. Yates, J. McAtee

FC Midtjylland 3-5-2

167.5 E. Ólafsson(G)
227.5 M. Bech 67.0 M. Erlić 47.0 O. Diao A
556.3 V. Bak Jensen 196.3 P. Bravo 88.2★ P. Billing 216.9 D. Castillo ↓46’ 436.2 M. Mbabu ↓59’
586.3 D. Şimşir ↓57’ 746.3 Júnior Brumado ↓57’
  • 16E. Ólafsson (G)7.5
  • 22M. Bech7.5
  • 6M. Erlić7.0
  • 4O. DiaoA7.0
  • 55V. Bak Jensen6.3
  • 19P. Bravo6.3
  • 8P. Billing ★8.2
  • 21D. Castillo↓46’6.9
  • 43M. Mbabu↓59’6.2
  • 58D. Şimşir↓57’6.3
  • 74Júnior Brumado↓57’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 20V. Byskov↑46’6.6
  • 17M. Uhre↑57’6.2
  • 10G. Cho↑57’7.3
  • 3H. Lee↑59’6.3

Unused: M. Ugboh, J. Lössl, A. Gabriel, E. Chilufya, J. Zé

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Player stats

Top rated
P. BillingFC Midtjylland8.2
2nd
O. HutchinsonNottingham Forest7.6
3rd
E. ÓlafssonFC Midtjylland7.5

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 50% 24 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
Morato D 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 21 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
Murillo D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 83% 58 1 1 0/0 2/0 6.7
Jair D 9 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
C. Hudson-Odoi F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 89% 37 1 2 0/0 1/2 7.3
N. Domínguez M 70 0 0 1 (0) 2 79% 56 3 2 0/0 2/1 6.9
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 2 (2) 1 89% 70 2 0 2/2 1/0 7.2
T. Aina D 82 0 0 1 (1) 1 89% 37 1 1 0/3 0/2 6.3
M. Gibbs-White M 90 0 0 2 (0) 4 82% 38 0 0 1/2 1/1 6.3
O. Hutchinson F 90 0 0 1 (1) 4 79% 38 2 0 2/4 0/1 7.6
Igor Jesus F 70 0 0 4 (2) 1 69% 16 1 0 0/1 0/3 7.0
N. Milenković D 81 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 44 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
N. Williams D 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 97% 30 2 1 1/1 0/0 6.6
I. Sangaré M 20 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 20 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
L. Lucca F 20 0 0 1 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
D. Bakwa F 8 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

FC Midtjylland

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Ólafsson G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 57% 42 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
M. Bech D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 72% 36 2 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
M. Erlić D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 27 1 2 0/0 1/0 7.0
O. Diao D 90 0 1 0 (0) 2 80% 49 2 1 0/0 3/0 7.0
V. Bak Jensen D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 24 2 1 0/1 2/0 6.3
P. Bravo M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 31 1 1 0/1 0/0 6.3
P. Billing M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 52 2 1 2/2 1/1 8.2
D. Castillo M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 1 0 0/0 0/2 6.9
M. Mbabu D 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 15 0 2 1/2 1/1 6.2
D. Şimşir M 57 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 16 0 0 0/3 0/1 6.3
Júnior Brumado F 57 0 0 1 (0) 0 57% 7 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.3
V. Byskov M 44 0 0 2 (1) 1 78% 36 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.6
M. Uhre F 33 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 9 1 0 0/0 2/0 6.2
G. Cho F 33 1 0 1 (1) 0 75% 4 1 0 0/0 2/0 7.3
H. Lee D 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 17 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.