Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest

0–1Full time

FC Midtjylland

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 8 days of rest, FC Midtjylland 42 and had to travel 742 km.

Away travel742 kmRest days8 · 42Matches / 14d3 · 0

Nottingham Forest53%

Draw24%

FC Midtjylland23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.14

Nottingham Forest49%

Draw26%

FC Midtjylland25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Nottingham Forest52%

Draw24%

FC Midtjylland23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.14

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw26%

FC Midtjylland30%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.27

Nottingham Forest53%

Draw25%

FC Midtjylland23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.09

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

Referee · SloveniaRade Obrenovič

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 21

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

FC Midtjylland

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

68 AttackIn forecast 37

74 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Midtjylland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

FC Midtjylland

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.87

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.20 ShotsContext 13.70

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

30% On target shareContext 45%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

61% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 19%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.10

11.60 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.44 BlocksContext 3.50

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

64% Save rateContext 83%

45% PossessionIn forecast 56%

402 PassesContext 418

332 Accurate passesContext 336

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.11

10.40 FoulsContext 14.80

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km673 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Midtjylland

Rest42 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel742 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar	42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	742 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	673 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 3 / 5	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26M. Sels(G)

4Morato 5Murillo 23Jair

7C. Hudson-Odoi 16N. Domínguez 8E. Anderson 34T. Aina

10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16E. Ólafsson(G)

22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 4O. Diao

55V. Bak Jensen 19P. Bravo 8P. Billing 21D. Castillo 43M. Mbabu

58D. Şimşir 74Júnior Brumado

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Midtjylland Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Midtjylland-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Midtjylland · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws1 FC Midtjylland wins

Goals per game2.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

2 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest2–3FC Midtjylland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.95
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.25
Conceded per game	1.10	1.00
Match goals	2.60	3.25	2.95
Over 1.5	80%	88%
Over 2.5	60%	63%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.60
Corners conceded	4.20	4.80
Match total	10.20	10.40	7.50
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.90
Opponent cards	1.50	1.90
Match total	2.70	3.80	4.75
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rade Obrenovič Slovenia · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.52league 4.25

Red cards0.19league 0.50

Cards 5+48%league 75%

Fouls23.0league 26.8

Penalties0.24league 0.25

Home wins43%league 25%

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Midtjylland

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.