Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham – 5 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 5 · 15:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 15th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

0–0Full time

Tottenham 19th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 7.1 days of rest, Tottenham 6.9 and had to travel 175 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel175 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nottingham Forest56%

Draw23%

Tottenham22%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.05

Nottingham Forest53%

Draw24%

Tottenham23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Nottingham Forest55%

Draw23%

Tottenham22%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.06

Nottingham Forest48%

Draw25%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.18

Nottingham Forest56%

Draw23%

Tottenham21%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.05

Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

20°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 46%

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 148

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

68 AttackIn forecast 56

74 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.30

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

50% Scored inContext 0%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 13.00

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

21% On target shareContext 39%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

71% Box shareContext 52%

8% ConversionContext 0%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

12.00 Shots allowedContext 18.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

5.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

57% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

350 PassesContext 524

257 Accurate passesContext 462

74% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.64

12.50 FoulsContext 14.50

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.90 ShotsContext 13.00

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

38% On target shareContext 32%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

71% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 6%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.40

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

5.70 BlocksContext 2.90

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

72% Save rateContext 61%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

381 PassesContext 448

304 Accurate passesContext 379

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.70 FoulsContext 14.20

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest LD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 1 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

D29 AugA · Liverpool2–20.8 xPts
L22 AugH · Leeds0–11.7 xPts

Tottenham LL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel175 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 34 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected

L29 AugH · Newcastle0–21.4 xPts
L22 AugA · Brentford0–31.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug	6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	264 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 31N. Milenković 23Jair

3N. Williams 24J. McAtee 21X. Schlager 34T. Aina

10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19L. Delap

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 6J. van Hecke 23Pedro Porro

16S. Tonali 30R. Bentancur

11M. Tel 8C. Gallagher 17Savinho

22O. Marmoush

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Tottenham-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Tottenham · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws4 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.38 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets38% · 25%

22 Mar 2026Tottenham0–3Nottingham Forest
14 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest3–0Tottenham
21 Apr 2025Tottenham1–2Nottingham Forest
26 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Tottenham
7 Apr 2024Tottenham3–1Nottingham Forest
15 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.50	2.50
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.88
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	100%
Games	2	2

	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	3.30	2.30	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.00
Corners conceded	2.50	7.00
Match total	6.50	13.00	9.24
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.50	2.50	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.30
Corners conceded	4.60	4.60
Match total	8.60	11.90	9.24
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.10
Match total	3.20	4.80	4.00
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 148 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.82

Red cards0.10league 0.05

Cards 5+38%league 32%

Fouls22.7league 23.2

Penalties0.23league 0.18

Home wins41%league 45%

Nottingham Forest9 with this referee

Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 2

D24 May 26H · Bournemouth1–11
L31 Aug 25H · West Ham0–30
L25 Jan 25A · Bournemouth0–53
W26 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–03
W25 Oct 24A · Leicester3–13

Tottenham14 with this referee

Record5-1-8 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L10 Jan 26H · Aston Villa1–23
W26 Oct 25A · Everton3–00
L26 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest0–14
W3 Nov 24H · Aston Villa4–12
W11 Mar 23H · Nottingham Forest3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.