OFI vs 1899 Hoffenheim – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 17:45 Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion

OFI

2–0Full time

1899 Hoffenheim

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.

1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 19). OFI had 20.9 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 5.1 and had to travel 2,037 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,037 kmRest days20.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 2

OFI21%

Draw21%

1899 Hoffenheim58%

Expected goals 1.12 – 2.00

OFI21%

Draw23%

1899 Hoffenheim55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.77

OFI21%

Draw22%

1899 Hoffenheim57%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.98

OFI16%

Draw19%

1899 Hoffenheim65%

Expected goals 1.00 – 2.24

OFI21%

Draw22%

1899 Hoffenheim57%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.98

Over 2.5 60% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heraklion)

22°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 58%

RefereeJavier Alberola

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 75

Team strength

OFI

1899 Hoffenheim

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

18 AttackIn forecast 46

25 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OFI

Attack—

Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OFI

1899 Hoffenheim

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.87 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

6.88 ShotsContext 15.60

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

44% On target shareContext 33%

4.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

62% Box shareContext 61%

22% ConversionContext 11%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.00

16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90

6.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.20 BlocksContext 3.40

5.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

82% Save rateContext 59%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

397 PassesContext 467

318 Accurate passesContext 382

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.80 FoulsContext 13.80

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OFI

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1899 Hoffenheim LLW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,037 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 44 · 3 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

W12 SepH · VfB Stuttgart2–11.4 xPts
L5 SepH · Borussia Dortmund2–31.2 xPts
L29 AugA · 1.FC Köln2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	OFI	1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug	5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,037 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	28.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OFI Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31N. Christogeorgos(G)

2K. Krizmanić 15A. Poungouras 5K. Kostoulas

3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann

10Aitor Cantalapiedra 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Baumann(G)

39M. Rots 21A. Hajdari 5O. Kabak 34V. Coufal

18W. Burger 7L. Avdullahu

10A. Hložek 17N. De Cat 8P. Wimmer

19T. Lemperle

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

OFI Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

OFI-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
1899 Hoffenheim+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

OFI · Home No home games yet this season.

1899 Hoffenheim · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	OFI	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.12
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	60%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	OFI	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.70
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	2.50	3.70	3.12
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	100%	10%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	2	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	OFI	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	OFI	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.50
Corners conceded	6.25	3.90
Match total	9.25	10.40	10.75
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	3.10
Opponent cards	2.80	2.20
Match total	4.50	5.30	2.50
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.29league 2.78

Red cards0.16league 0.00

Cards 5+25%league 33%

Fouls25.8league 23.8

Penalties0.27league 0.11

Home wins47%league 44%

OFI

No previous matches with this referee.

1899 Hoffenheim

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.