OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
12th · 31 pts · 29 played
WLLLW
First leg1–3
1–0Full time
Antwerp
10th · 35 pts · 29 played
LLWDD
Our take
OH Leuven were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. OH Leuven had 8.1 days of rest, Antwerp 7.1 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Antwerp29%
OH Leuven36%
Draw27%
Antwerp37%
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Antwerp29%
OH Leuven37%
Draw27%
Antwerp36%
OH Leuven45%
Draw26%
Antwerp29%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 39
Team strength
OH LeuvenAntwerp
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
17
AttackIn forecast
24
30
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenAntwerp
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
69%
Scored inContext
62%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.07
ShotsContext
10.45
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.18
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
68%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.76
13.10
Shots allowedContext
13.41
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
3.50
BlocksContext
4.17
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.09
69%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
328
PassesContext
358
251
Accurate passesContext
280
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.10
FoulsContext
12.66
11.21
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
60%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
8.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
29%
On target shareContext
40%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
74%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.44
15.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
5.00
BlocksContext
3.10
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
71%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
316
PassesContext
352
238
Accurate passesContext
265
75%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.20
FoulsContext
13.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 107 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 139.9 | 140 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16M. Prévot(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
14H. Teklab
10Y. Maziz
7T. Verlinden
19C. Ikwuemesi
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
23G. Bijl
4Yuto Tsunashima
33Z. Van Den Bosch
30C. Scott
78Xander Dierickx
8D. Praet
17S. Renders
7G. Kerk
14A. Valencia
18V. Janssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.29
Antwerp · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 2–0 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–5 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Dender | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Gent | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 HL 0–5 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 31 of 84 · 1.11 per game | 32 of 84 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins1 draws2 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 10 Aug 2025Antwerp3–1OH Leuven
- 2 Dec 2023Antwerp1–0OH Leuven
- 18 Aug 2023OH Leuven1–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.14 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 34% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 38% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| OH Leuven | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.82 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.96 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 8.86 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 19/28 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 18/28 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 17/28 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.97 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.34 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.31 | 4.10 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 17/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| OH Leuven | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.70 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 8.50 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 90% 9/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.84
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+49%league 40%
Fouls22.3league 22.7
Penalties0.31league 0.32
Home wins46%league 41%
OH Leuven4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D17 Feb 24H · Charleroi0–02
- D27 Jan 24A · Kortrijk0–01
- D17 Sep 23H · Gent1–14
- L26 Aug 23A · AS Eupen1–32
Antwerp3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Dec 25A · Gent2–01
- L26 Oct 25H · Club Brugge KV0–12
- D27 Sep 23H · Gent0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven29 games · scored 31 · conceded 43
4
8
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
9
46-60
8
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
Antwerp29 games · scored 31 · conceded 31
3
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
6
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
7
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
