OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Cercle Brugge were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Cercle Brugge. OH Leuven had 6.1 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 6.3 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d3 · 2
OH Leuven34%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge42%
OH Leuven38%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge36%
OH Leuven34%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge42%
OH Leuven27%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge49%
OH Leuven34%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge42%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
OH Leuven
Cercle Brugge
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
24
30
DefenceIn forecast
28
7
Form indexContext
12
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenCercle Brugge
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
3.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.16
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-1.13
40%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
16.60
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
17%
On target shareContext
22%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
67%
Box shareContext
72%
3%
ConversionContext
6%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.40
17.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
6.50
BlocksContext
4.80
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
59%
Save rateContext
48%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
450
PassesContext
385
366
Accurate passesContext
308
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.20
FoulsContext
11.80
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
15.30
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
23%
On target shareContext
32%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
69%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
15.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
63%
Save rateContext
53%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
395
PassesContext
386
318
Accurate passesContext
308
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
10.60
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
LLLLL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.3 vs expected
Cercle Brugge
DDLLL
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 2 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. van den Heuvel(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku
4B. Verstraete
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
9A. Traoré
8S. Schrijvers
18Robin Mirisola
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
33Royer Caicedo
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
12Valy Konaté
42L. Mondele
15G. Magnée
2I. Diakité
13D. Vanzeir
8Erick
9S. Ngoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Cercle Brugge · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins0 draws3 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 21 Dec 2025OH Leuven0–2Cercle Brugge
- 8 Nov 2025Cercle Brugge1–2OH Leuven
- 16 Dec 2023OH Leuven1–2Cercle Brugge
- 7 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge3–2OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.40 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 14.25 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 12.56 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
OH Leuven5 games · scored 2 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge5 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
