OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
OH Leuven were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. OH Leuven had ? days of rest, Charleroi ? and had to travel 53 km.
Away travel53 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Charleroi29%
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Charleroi29%
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Charleroi29%
OH Leuven37%
Draw27%
Charleroi36%
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Charleroi29%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 23
Team strength
OH Leuven
Charleroi
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
17
AttackIn forecast
43
30
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenCharleroi
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.90
ShotsContext
9.78
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
68%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.30
Shots allowedContext
13.11
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.40
BlocksContext
4.38
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
83%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
367
PassesContext
391
271
Accurate passesContext
284
74%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.90
FoulsContext
13.22
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel53 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 53 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
5T. Ominami
28E. Pletinckx
27Óscar Gil
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
7T. Verlinden
33M. Maertens
21W. Balikwisha
9A. Traoré
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
15V. Dragsnes
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
29Ž. Rogelj
5É. Camara
56A. Boukamir
10P. Guiagon
22Y. Titraoui
7I. Mbenza
19N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
No home games yet this season.
Charleroi · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins2 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 17 Feb 2024OH Leuven0–0Charleroi
- 29 Jul 2023Charleroi1–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| OH Leuven | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| OH Leuven | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.11 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 4.60
Red cards0.30league 0.00
Cards 5+52%league 60%
Fouls22.3league 24.4
Penalties0.09league 0.40
Home wins43%league 20%
OH Leuven4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L26 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV0–14
- L28 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–51
- W23 Sep 23A · KV Mechelen2–13
- D29 Jul 23A · Charleroi1–11
Charleroi1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D29 Jul 23H · OH Leuven1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH LeuvenCharleroiOH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
