OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Club Brugge KV. OH Leuven had 6.2 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 8 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days6.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven11%
Draw16%
Club Brugge KV73%
OH Leuven14%
Draw20%
Club Brugge KV66%
OH Leuven11%
Draw16%
Club Brugge KV73%
OH Leuven8%
Draw13%
Club Brugge KV80%
OH Leuven12%
Draw16%
Club Brugge KV72%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 59
Team strength
OH Leuven
Club Brugge KV
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
17
AttackIn forecast
86
30
DefenceIn forecast
58
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenClub Brugge KV
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
2.50
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
18.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.90
71%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.43
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.00
BlocksContext
5.10
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
71%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
362
PassesContext
499
293
Accurate passesContext
422
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.24
11.00
FoulsContext
9.50
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
L
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
- L9 AugA · Charleroi1–30.9 xPts
Club Brugge KV
W
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 3 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
- W7 AugH · Kortrijk3–02.7 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 7 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 107 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
11H. Teklab
8S. Schrijvers
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha
19C. Ikwuemesi
17K. Vaesen
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
3H. Lee
64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken
8F. Potts
67M. Diakhon
10H. Vetlesen
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
No home games yet this season.
Club Brugge KV · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins0 draws4 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 21 Feb 2026Club Brugge KV2–1OH Leuven
- 18 Oct 2025OH Leuven0–1Club Brugge KV
- 10 Mar 2024Club Brugge KV3–1OH Leuven
- 26 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| OH Leuven | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.00 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| OH Leuven | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.30 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 2.75
Red cards0.27league 0.17
Cards 5+25%league 25%
Fouls22.5league 21.2
Penalties0.39league 0.25
Home wins51%league 50%
OH Leuven4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W14 Mar 26A · Charleroi2–01
- L21 Feb 26A · Club Brugge KV1–21
- W24 Aug 25A · Dender1–04
- L16 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge1–24
Club Brugge KV12 with this referee
Record8-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- W9 May 26H · St. Truiden2–00
- W6 Apr 26H · Anderlecht4–22
- W21 Feb 26H · OH Leuven2–10
- W21 Dec 25H · Gent2–10
- W27 Sep 25A · Standard Liege2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Club Brugge KV1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
7
46-60
5
61-75
2
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 31 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
8
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
