OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OH Leuven10.7%fair odds 9.31
Draw16.6%fair odds 6.04
Club Brugge KV72.7%fair odds 1.38
Expected goals0.91 – 2.57total 3.48
Likeliest score0–210.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OH Leuven ↓ · Club Brugge KV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns Club Brugge KV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.2%9.84
- 1–29.3%10.80
- 0–38.7%11.49
- 1–37.9%12.61
- 1–17.6%13.17
- 0–17.5%13.28
- 0–45.6%17.90
- 1–45.1%19.63
- 2–24.2%23.69
- 2–33.6%27.66
Winning margin
0.8%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 118.49
2.6%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 38.15
7.3%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 13.74
16.6%
Draw
fair 6.04
21.2%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.72
20.8%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 4.80
30.7%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 3.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
OH Leuven goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Club Brugge KV goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 10.7% | 11.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 16.6% | 17.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Club Brugge KV win | 72.7% | 71.6% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 66.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 55.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 0.91 | 0.91 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 2.57 | 2.50 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OH Leuven win10.7%9.31
- Draw16.6%6.04
- Club Brugge KV win72.7%1.38
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw27.3%3.66
- Double chance OH Leuven or Club Brugge KV83.4%1.20
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw89.3%1.12
- Draw no bet OH Leuven12.9%7.77
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV87.1%1.15
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.6%1.15
- Over 2.567.6%1.48
- Over 3.545.9%2.18
- Over 4.527.1%3.69
- Under 1.513.4%7.45
- Under 2.532.4%3.08
- Under 3.554.1%1.85
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- OH Leuven win and yes6.5%15.29
- Draw and yes13.1%7.64
- Club Brugge KV win and yes36.0%2.78
Team goals
- OH Leuven over 0.559.8%1.67
- OH Leuven over 1.523.2%4.31
- OH Leuven over 2.56.5%15.44
- Club Brugge KV over 0.592.3%1.08
- Club Brugge KV over 1.572.7%1.38
- Club Brugge KV over 2.547.4%2.11
- OH Leuven clean sheet7.7%13.05
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet40.2%2.49
- OH Leuven win to nil4.2%23.80
- Club Brugge KV win to nil36.7%2.72
Handicap
- OH Leuven −1.53.5%28.86
- OH Leuven −2.50.8%118.49
- Club Brugge KV +1.596.5%1.04
- Club Brugge KV +2.599.2%1.01
- Club Brugge KV −1.551.5%1.94
- OH Leuven +1.548.5%2.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won58.3%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.548
Over 2.5 called right75.0%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 6 | 45.3% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 54.9% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.9% | 0.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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- ✓KVC Westerlo 1–5 Union St. Gilloise21·23·56
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.