OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
13th · 25 pts · 24 played
DLDDW
First leg1–0
3–2Full time
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 24 played
DWDLL
Our take
OH Leuven were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards OH Leuven. OH Leuven had 6.8 days of rest, Dender 7 and had to travel 44 km.
Away travel44 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
OH Leuven48%
Draw26%
Dender26%
OH Leuven47%
Draw26%
Dender27%
OH Leuven48%
Draw26%
Dender26%
OH Leuven41%
Draw27%
Dender32%
OH Leuven48%
Draw26%
Dender26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 23
Team strength
OH LeuvenDender
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
17
AttackIn forecast
15
30
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenDender
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
67%
Scored inContext
58%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.21
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
66%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.75
Shots allowedContext
13.75
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.26
BlocksContext
3.50
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
72%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
336
PassesContext
382
258
Accurate passesContext
290
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.83
FoulsContext
10.88
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
10.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
37%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
62%
Box shareContext
77%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.80
BlocksContext
3.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
346
PassesContext
363
265
Accurate passesContext
269
77%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.10
FoulsContext
11.70
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel44 km91 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 44 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 143 km | 91 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16M. Prévot(G)
30T. Akimoto
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
14H. Teklab
24Ł. Łakomy
8S. Schrijvers
27Óscar Gil
7T. Verlinden
33M. Maertens
19C. Ikwuemesi
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.25
Dender · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 HL 0–5 A | L 0–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 22 of 69 · 0.96 per game | 17 of 69 · 0.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins0 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 24 Aug 2025Dender0–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.29 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 54% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| OH Leuven | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.61 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.35 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.96 | 8.26 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 14/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 13/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 13% 3/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 5.63 | 3.50 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 20/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 15/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| OH Leuven | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.11 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 4.00 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.89
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+26%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 22.9
Penalties0.17league 0.29
Home wins35%league 41%
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Nov 25A · Cercle Brugge2–11
- D26 Sep 25H · Anderlecht1–14
- L4 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo0–23
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 Aug 25A · Standard Liege1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven24 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
3
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
Dender24 games · scored 18 · conceded 37
4
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
9
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
