OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 20). Genk usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. OH Leuven had 5.1 days of rest, Genk 5.1 and had to travel 58 km.
Away travel58 kmRest days5.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
OH Leuven32%
Draw27%
Genk41%
OH Leuven33%
Draw27%
Genk40%
OH Leuven32%
Draw27%
Genk42%
OH Leuven26%
Draw26%
Genk49%
OH Leuven34%
Draw27%
Genk39%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 24
Team strength
OH Leuven
Genk
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
17
AttackIn forecast
46
30
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenGenk
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
3.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
6.00
ShotsContext
17.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
22%
On target shareContext
33%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
85%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
15.33
Shots allowedContext
10.00
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
52%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
311
PassesContext
578
242
Accurate passesContext
513
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.90
15.00
FoulsContext
11.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
15.30
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
26%
On target shareContext
32%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
73%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.40
BlocksContext
1.90
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
71%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
367
PassesContext
492
280
Accurate passesContext
411
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.50
FoulsContext
11.70
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km135 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel58 km74 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 58 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 135 km | 74 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 15.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
11C. Terho
9A. Traoré
22J. Mijatović
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
14Y. Sor
20K. Karetsas
7J. Steuckers
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Genk · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Jan 2024OH Leuven2–1Genk
- 12 Nov 2023Genk3–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.67 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| OH Leuven | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.67 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.33 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.66 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| OH Leuven | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 10.40 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 3.79
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 38%
Fouls24.1league 23.6
Penalties0.29league 0.50
Home wins42%league 50%
OH Leuven2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Feb 24A · RWDM1–13
- L30 Sep 23H · Standard Liege1–22
Genk3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D28 Jan 24A · St. Truiden1–15
- L4 Nov 23A · Antwerp2–34
- D24 Sep 23H · St. Truiden3–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven3 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Genk3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
