OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 19). OH Leuven had 7.9 days of rest, Gent 7.8 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days7.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
OH Leuven27%
Draw26%
Gent46%
OH Leuven28%
Draw26%
Gent46%
OH Leuven27%
Draw26%
Gent46%
OH Leuven21%
Draw25%
Gent54%
OH Leuven28%
Draw26%
Gent46%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.71
- Matches 21
Team strength
OH Leuven
Gent
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
17
AttackIn forecast
46
30
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenGent
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
67%
Scored inContext
92%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.92
ShotsContext
13.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
69%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.92
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.82
BlocksContext
4.33
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
66%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
332
PassesContext
478
256
Accurate passesContext
397
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.92
16.50
FoulsContext
10.50
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
3.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
66%
Box shareContext
64%
5%
ConversionContext
15%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.90
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.67
BlocksContext
4.63
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
68%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
333
PassesContext
466
257
Accurate passesContext
388
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.94
17.40
FoulsContext
10.50
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km47 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km54 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 47 km | 54 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
6W. George
24Ł. Łakomy
19C. Ikwuemesi
39S. Kaba
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
18M. Samoise
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
6O. Gandelman
8M. Skóraś
45B. Goore
19F. Surdez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Gent · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 2–3 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins1 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 21 Dec 2023Gent4–0OH Leuven
- 17 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| OH Leuven | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 9.91 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 5.59 | 3.75 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| OH Leuven | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.20 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.20 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.79
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls24.0league 23.1
Penalties0.71league 0.28
Home wins62%league 43%
OH Leuven4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25H · RAAL La Louvière1–24
- L10 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–35
- L10 Feb 24A · Standard Liege0–13
- W1 Sep 23H · Kortrijk3–01
Gent2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L2 Mar 24A · Standard Liege2–42
- W13 Aug 23A · KVC Westerlo3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven12 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Gent12 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
