OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
OH Leuven were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards RAAL La Louvière. OH Leuven had 6.8 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 5.9 and had to travel 55 km.
Away travel55 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
OH Leuven41%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière33%
OH Leuven42%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière32%
OH Leuven41%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière33%
OH Leuven34%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière40%
OH Leuven41%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 63
Team strength
OH Leuven
RAAL La Louvière
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
17
AttackIn forecast
15
30
DefenceIn forecast
15
8
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenRAAL La Louvière
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
3.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
50%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.33
ShotsContext
11.33
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
18%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
66%
Box shareContext
55%
4%
ConversionContext
10%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.80
16.17
Shots allowedContext
16.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.60
BlocksContext
4.33
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
58%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
430
PassesContext
315
343
Accurate passesContext
236
80%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.33
FoulsContext
11.50
10.83
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.30
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
21%
On target shareContext
33%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
67%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
15.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.44
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
65%
Save rateContext
56%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
393
PassesContext
329
314
Accurate passesContext
255
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.10
FoulsContext
11.70
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
LLLLD
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 1 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
RAAL La Louvière
LLDLW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel55 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 55 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. van den Heuvel(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
18Robin Mirisola
9A. Traoré
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
99Y. Okou
33P. Nkoa
4Wagane Faye
18S. Delos
78A. Tajaouart
48I. Coulibaly
29M. Courcoul
7Máté Krisztián Kovács
10M. Wade
11M. Ubandoma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins1 draws1 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 27 Dec 2025RAAL La Louvière0–0OH Leuven
- 20 Sep 2025OH Leuven1–2RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.17 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| OH Leuven | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.83 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 12.16 | 10.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.34 | 3.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| OH Leuven | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.30 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 9.56 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 2.95
Red cards0.27league 0.11
Cards 5+25%league 24%
Fouls22.7league 21.8
Penalties0.38league 0.25
Home wins49%league 49%
OH Leuven5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L15 Aug 26H · Club Brugge KV0–30
- W14 Mar 26A · Charleroi2–01
- L21 Feb 26A · Club Brugge KV1–21
- W24 Aug 25A · Dender1–04
- L16 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge1–24
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Mar 26H · Antwerp0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven6 games · scored 3 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
76-90
RAAL La Louvière6 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
