OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
14th · 15 pts · 16 played
DWWLL
First leg0–2
1–1Full time
Zulte Waregem
9th · 21 pts · 16 played
DLDDD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Zulte Waregem were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 21). OH Leuven had 7.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 8 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
OH Leuven38%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem34%
OH Leuven38%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem34%
OH Leuven38%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem34%
OH Leuven31%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem41%
OH Leuven38%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem34%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 23
Team strength
OH LeuvenZulte Waregem
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
17
AttackIn forecast
27
30
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenZulte Waregem
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
75%
Scored inContext
75%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.81
ShotsContext
11.19
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
67%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.73
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.44
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
2.87
BlocksContext
3.87
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
68%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
328
PassesContext
370
253
Accurate passesContext
298
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.92
16.19
FoulsContext
11.38
10.94
Fouls sufferedContext
11.19
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
62%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.60
BlocksContext
3.67
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
340
PassesContext
368
267
Accurate passesContext
295
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.02
17.20
FoulsContext
11.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
7T. Verlinden
10Y. Maziz
4B. Verstraete
24Ł. Łakomy
27Óscar Gil
39S. Kaba
33M. Maertens
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
4L. Lemoine
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
39M. Aké
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
17E. Soglo
18A. Ementa
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Gent | W 4–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 1–4 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 45 · 1.00 per game | 18 of 45 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins0 draws1 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 13 Sep 2025Zulte Waregem2–0OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.75 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 63% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| OH Leuven | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.07 | 6.73 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 11.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.06 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 3.69 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| OH Leuven | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.78 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.60 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.81
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 42%
Fouls24.0league 22.9
Penalties0.26league 0.30
Home wins35%league 43%
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 23A · Gent0–41
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W10 Aug 25A · Anderlecht3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven16 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
2
4
0-15
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Zulte Waregem16 games · scored 22 · conceded 22
3
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
