Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 17:45 Neo GSP, Levkosía

Omonia Nicosia

1–0Full time

Celta Vigo

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Omonia Nicosia. Omonia Nicosia had 20 days of rest, Celta Vigo 3.2 and had to travel 3,696 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel3,696 kmRest days20 · 3.2Matches / 14d0 · 3

Omonia Nicosia35%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo38%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.32

Omonia Nicosia30%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo45%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51

Omonia Nicosia35%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo38%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.33

Omonia Nicosia29%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo46%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.48

Omonia Nicosia35%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo38%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.32

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Levkosía)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 61%

Heat stress

Referee · HungaryBalazs Berke

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 14

Team strength

Omonia Nicosia

Celta Vigo

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

34 AttackIn forecast 36

41 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Omonia Nicosia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Omonia Nicosia

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.25 ShotsContext 8.80

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

31% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.90

65% Box shareContext 51%

4% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.33

12.25 Shots allowedContext 14.30

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.00 BlocksContext 3.40

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

73% Save rateContext 74%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

374 PassesContext 529

293 Accurate passesContext 460

78% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.57 FoulsContext 10.30

16.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Omonia Nicosia

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo LLDDD

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel3,696 km2,065 km in 14d

Schedule load48%High

Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

D13 SepH · Malaga1–11.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Getafe1–11.1 xPts
D3 SepA · Real Sociedad0–01.0 xPts
L30 AugH · Athletic Club0–21.6 xPts
L27 AugH · Osasuna1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Omonia Nicosia	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 48
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug	3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	3,696 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,065 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	29	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Omonia Nicosia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40Fabiano(G)

29J. Balkovec 37Ľ. Šatka 5S. Coulibaly 93J. Duverne

14M. Marić 74P. Andreou

7J. Montnor 22M. Tankovic 11Ewandro

99L. Diony

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

13I. Radu(G)

3Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 20Javi Rodríguez

24C. Driouech 5Sergio Carreira 8Miguel Román 15Alvaro Núñez

30H. Burcio

9Ferran Jutglà 11Pablo Durán

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Omonia Nicosia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Omonia Nicosia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celta Vigo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Omonia Nicosia · Home No home games yet this season.

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Omonia Nicosia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.57
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	48%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Omonia Nicosia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	0.80
Conceded per game	0.83	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.80	2.57
Over 1.5	33%	60%
Over 2.5	17%	20%	48%
Over 3.5	17%	10%
Both teams scored	33%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	33%	40%
Failed to score	33%	30%
Games	6	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Omonia Nicosia	Celta Vigo
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Omonia Nicosia	Celta Vigo
Corners
Corners won	3.29	3.25
Corners conceded	3.71	4.63
Match total	7.00	7.88
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.50
Opponent cards	2.90	1.90
Match total	5.50	3.40
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Balazs Berke Hungary · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64

Red cards0.43

Cards 5+36%

Fouls23.0

Penalties0.36

Home wins57%

Omonia Nicosia

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L27 Nov 25A · Ludogorets2–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.