Omonia Nicosia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Omonia Nicosia34.4%fair odds 2.91
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.59
Celta Vigo37.8%fair odds 2.65
Expected goals1.25 – 1.32total 2.57
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Omonia Nicosia ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Omonia Nicosia goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.53
- 0–19.4%10.62
- 1–08.9%11.29
- 1–28.3%11.98
- 0–08.3%12.07
- 2–17.9%12.67
- 0–26.7%14.98
- 2–06.0%16.78
- 2–25.2%19.15
- 1–33.7%27.14
Winning margin
5.1%
Omonia Nicosia by 3+
fair 19.64
10.0%
Omonia Nicosia by 2
fair 9.99
19.3%
Omonia Nicosia by 1
fair 5.19
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.59
20.4%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.90
11.2%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 8.92
6.2%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 16.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Omonia Nicosia goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Celta Vigo goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia win | 34.4% | 34.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.0 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 37.8% | 37.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 47.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 53.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Omonia Nicosia | 1.25 | 1.26 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.32 | 1.32 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Omonia Nicosia win34.4%2.91
- Draw27.9%3.59
- Celta Vigo win37.8%2.65
- Double chance Omonia Nicosia or draw62.2%1.61
- Double chance Omonia Nicosia or Celta Vigo72.1%1.39
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw65.6%1.52
- Draw no bet Omonia Nicosia47.6%2.10
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo52.4%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.4%1.36
- Over 2.547.5%2.10
- Over 3.525.9%3.87
- Over 4.511.9%8.40
- Under 1.526.6%3.76
- Under 2.552.5%1.91
- Under 3.574.1%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.539.8%2.51
- Omonia Nicosia win and yes16.0%6.24
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Celta Vigo win and yes17.4%5.73
Team goals
- Omonia Nicosia over 0.571.4%1.40
- Omonia Nicosia over 1.535.6%2.81
- Omonia Nicosia over 2.513.2%7.59
- Celta Vigo over 0.573.4%1.36
- Celta Vigo over 1.538.2%2.62
- Celta Vigo over 2.514.8%6.74
- Omonia Nicosia clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Celta Vigo clean sheet28.6%3.49
- Omonia Nicosia win to nil18.3%5.46
- Celta Vigo win to nil20.3%4.92
Handicap
- Omonia Nicosia −1.515.1%6.62
- Omonia Nicosia −2.55.1%19.64
- Celta Vigo +1.584.9%1.18
- Celta Vigo +2.594.9%1.05
- Celta Vigo −1.517.4%5.76
- Omonia Nicosia +1.582.6%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.