Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 53). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Osasuna had 13.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 11.8 and had to travel 115 km.
Away travel115 kmRest days13.9 · 11.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Osasuna39%
Draw28%
Athletic Club33%
Osasuna39%
Draw27%
Athletic Club34%
Osasuna38%
Draw29%
Athletic Club33%
Osasuna32%
Draw28%
Athletic Club40%
Osasuna40%
Draw27%
Athletic Club33%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 34
Team strength
Osasuna
Athletic Club
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
50
AttackIn forecast
51
50
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaAthletic Club
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
59%
Scored inContext
56%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.29
ShotsContext
13.00
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.91
12.82
Shots allowedContext
9.33
4.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.53
BlocksContext
2.60
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
75%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
371
PassesContext
414
294
Accurate passesContext
338
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.53
FoulsContext
11.78
10.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.78
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.73
60%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
29%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
70%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.70
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
2.56
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
72%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
367
PassesContext
365
287
Accurate passesContext
286
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.50
FoulsContext
13.60
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest11.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel115 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 11.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 115 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
19Adama Boiro
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Athletic Club-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Athletic Club · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 18 of 51 · 1.06 per game | 22 of 51 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Osasuna wins4 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 30 Mar 2025Athletic Club0–0Osasuna
- 21 Dec 2024Osasuna1–2Athletic Club
- 11 May 2024Athletic Club2–2Osasuna
- 19 Aug 2023Osasuna0–2Athletic Club
- 25 May 2023Osasuna2–0Athletic Club
- 9 Jan 2023Athletic Club0–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 2.22 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 39% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 44% | |
| Games | 17 | 18 |
| Osasuna | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 5.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.28 | |
| Match total | 7.58 | 9.56 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 5/14 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 3/14 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 1/14 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.41 | 3.94 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 13/17 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 9/17 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Osasuna | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.77 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.50 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 4.11
Red cards0.29league 0.27
Cards 5+53%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 24.5
Penalties0.18league 0.34
Home wins38%league 47%
Osasuna4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L15 Apr 24H · Valencia0–10
- D25 Feb 24A · Las Palmas1–11
- L4 Nov 23H · Girona2–45
- L19 Aug 23H · Athletic Club0–22
Athletic Club6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Nov 25A · Real Sociedad2–32
- D23 Sep 25H · Girona1–10
- W11 May 25H · Alaves1–01
- W25 May 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–01
- W13 Jan 24H · Real Sociedad2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna16 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
4
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
6
5
76-90
Athletic Club17 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
