Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Osasuna had 6.1 days of rest, Barcelona 7.2 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Osasuna21%
Draw24%
Barcelona55%
Osasuna16%
Draw22%
Barcelona61%
Osasuna20%
Draw24%
Barcelona56%
Osasuna16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Osasuna22%
Draw24%
Barcelona54%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Osasuna
Barcelona
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
50
AttackIn forecast
97
50
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaBarcelona
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.64
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
67%
Scored inContext
100%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
11.24
ShotsContext
18.97
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.91
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.64
12.03
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.66
3.28
BlocksContext
2.28
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
73%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
385
PassesContext
642
312
Accurate passesContext
577
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.12
13.21
FoulsContext
9.64
11.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.85
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.70
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
36%
On target shareContext
45%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
70%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.20
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.11
BlocksContext
2.38
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
71%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
417
PassesContext
581
347
Accurate passesContext
521
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.11
14.20
FoulsContext
8.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km1,020 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 231 km | 1,020 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
7Moncayola
6Lucas Torró
18Raúl Moro
16Moi Gómez
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
6Gavi
16Fermín López
20Dani Olmo
19R. Bardghji
9R. Lewandowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Barcelona-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.13
Barcelona · Away
2.13points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-4
- Scored
- 2.19
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 5–3 A |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Girona | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 96 · 1.31 per game | 82 of 96 · 2.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Osasuna wins1 draws8 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 13 Dec 2025Barcelona2–0Osasuna
- 27 Mar 2025Barcelona3–0Osasuna
- 28 Sep 2024Osasuna4–2Barcelona
- 31 Jan 2024Barcelona1–0Osasuna
- 3 Sep 2023Osasuna1–2Barcelona
- 2 May 2023Barcelona1–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 2.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 3.55 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 76% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Osasuna | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.34 | 6.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 8.03 | 11.12 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 12/29 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 6/29 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 2/29 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 1.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.12 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 27/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 19/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Osasuna | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.40 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.70 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.82league 4.28
Red cards0.31league 0.28
Cards 5+62%league 47%
Fouls26.1league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins33%league 49%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25A · Villarreal1–23
- W10 Feb 24A · Real Sociedad1–00
Barcelona2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Feb 26H · Villarreal4–12
- L10 Dec 23H · Girona2–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna32 games · scored 39 · conceded 40
5
1
0-15
2
7
16-30
12
5
31-45
8
46-60
2
13
61-75
18
6
76-90
Barcelona33 games · scored 87 · conceded 30
15
5
0-15
9
4
16-30
17
10
31-45
13
2
46-60
15
3
61-75
18
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
8
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
