Osasuna vs Espanyol – 12 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 12 · 15:15 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 9th · 7 pts · 4 played DWWL

0–2Full time

Espanyol 13th · 4 pts · 4 played WLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Osasuna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Osasuna. Osasuna had 5.9 days of rest, Espanyol 5.8 and had to travel 348 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel348 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Osasuna53%

Draw24%

Espanyol23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.05

Osasuna47%

Draw25%

Espanyol28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Osasuna53%

Draw24%

Espanyol23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.06

Osasuna45%

Draw25%

Espanyol29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.18

Osasuna53%

Draw24%

Espanyol23%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.07

Over 2.5 52% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Iruñea)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 30%

Warm

RefereeLuis Bestard Servera

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 24

Team strength

Osasuna

Espanyol

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

50 AttackIn forecast 36

50 DefenceIn forecast 51

64 Form indexContext 40

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Espanyol

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

75% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 25%

10.50 ShotsContext 11.75

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

45% On target shareContext 32%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

61% Box shareContext 55%

12% ConversionContext 13%

3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

9.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

2.25 BlocksContext 3.67

1.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

46% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

410 PassesContext 392

338 Accurate passesContext 320

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.75 FoulsContext 16.75

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.70

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 36%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

64% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.13

11.20 Shots allowedContext 13.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

2.89 BlocksContext 4.33

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

56% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

383 PassesContext 361

310 Accurate passesContext 285

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.10 FoulsContext 14.70

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna DWWL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km168 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

L6 SepA · Alaves2–51.1 xPts
W31 AugH · Getafe1–01.8 xPts
W27 AugA · Celta Vigo2–11.0 xPts
D24 AugH · Levante0–01.6 xPts

Espanyol WLLD

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel348 km797 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 40 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

D6 SepH · Sevilla1–11.5 xPts
L29 AugA · Real Sociedad1–21.1 xPts
L22 AugH · Real Madrid1–20.8 xPts
W16 AugH · Levante3–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep	5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	348 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	168 km	797 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

15Diego Rico 24Catena 48R. Yeboah 27Íñigo Arguibide

8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola

11Kike Barja 9Raúl García 14Rubén García

17A. Budimir

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

21Roger Hinojo 6L. Cabrera 5C. Riedel 23O. El Hilali

4Urko González 8Edu Expósito

24T. Dolan 28Javi Hernández 18Marcos Fernández

9R. Fernández Jaén

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Osasuna-0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Espanyol-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.00

Espanyol · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Osasuna	Espanyol
Levante	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Osasuna wins4 draws2 Espanyol wins

Goals per game0.75 – 0.63 Over 2.513% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 38%

17 May 2026Osasuna1–2Espanyol
31 Aug 2025Espanyol1–0Osasuna
18 May 2025Osasuna2–0Espanyol
14 Dec 2024Espanyol0–0Osasuna
4 Feb 2023Espanyol1–1Osasuna
20 Oct 2022Osasuna1–0Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.25
Match goals	2.75	2.75	2.77
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Osasuna	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.10
Match goals	2.90	2.30	2.77
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	2.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.50
Match total	7.50	7.50	10.27
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.50
Opponent cards	1.75	1.75
Match total	4.25	5.25	4.59
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4

	Osasuna	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.88
Corners conceded	5.00	5.75
Match total	9.10	9.63	10.27
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.50	5.00	4.59
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luis Bestard Servera 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.17league 4.30

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+71%league 49%

Fouls27.2league 24.8

Penalties0.21league 0.30

Home wins29%league 51%

Osasuna

No previous matches with this referee.

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.