Osasuna vs Girona – 21 Mar 2026

La Liga Gameweek 29 Sat, Mar 21 · 17:30 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 11th · 34 pts · 28 played DWLDL

1–0Full time

Girona 12th · 34 pts · 28 played WDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Osasuna had 5.9 days of rest, Girona 7.2 and had to travel 378 km.

Away travel378 kmRest days5.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Osasuna40%

Draw27%

Girona32%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.24

Osasuna48%

Draw26%

Girona26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.12

Osasuna39%

Draw27%

Girona33%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.27

Osasuna33%

Draw27%

Girona39%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.39

Osasuna41%

Draw26%

Girona32%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.32

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Iruñea)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 13

Team strength

Osasuna

Girona

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

50 AttackIn forecast 49

50 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Girona

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.54

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

64% Scored inContext 75%

21% Clean sheetsContext 18%

11.11 ShotsContext 10.39

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.07

31% On target shareContext 39%

8.12 Shots in the boxContext 6.79

69% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.52

12.61 Shots allowedContext 14.93

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.81

3.46 BlocksContext 3.57

3.52 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

73% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

371 PassesContext 455

297 Accurate passesContext 389

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.07 FoulsContext 10.75

11.36 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.07

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 12.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

26% On target shareContext 41%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

72% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.10 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.50 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

68% Save rateContext 81%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

367 PassesContext 500

299 Accurate passesContext 433

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.10 FoulsContext 11.40

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km123 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel378 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	378 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	123 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	16.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

20Javi Galán 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier

8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola

21Víctor Muñoz 10Aimar Oroz 14Rubén García

17A. Budimir

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

4Arnau Martínez 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

20A. Witsel 8Fran Beltrán

3Joel Roca 18A. Ounahi 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Osasuna+0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Girona-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.85
Conceded: 1.23

Girona · Away 1.07points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-5
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Osasuna	Girona
Real Sociedad	L 1–3 AL 1–3 H	W 2–1 A
Mallorca	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Valencia	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Real Madrid	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Elche	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Celta Vigo	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Villarreal	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–5 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–3 H
Oviedo	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H
Athletic Club	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Alaves	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Barcelona	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Levante	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 AL 0–4 H
Sevilla	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Getafe	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Real Betis	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Points	34 of 81 · 1.26 per game	31 of 81 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Osasuna wins1 draws4 Girona wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

10 Jan 2026Girona1–0Osasuna
13 Apr 2025Osasuna2–1Girona
29 Aug 2024Girona4–0Osasuna
9 Mar 2024Girona2–0Osasuna
4 Nov 2023Osasuna2–4Girona
4 Jun 2023Osasuna2–1Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	1.11
Conceded per game	1.25	1.54
Match goals	2.43	2.64	2.64
Over 1.5	68%	86%
Over 2.5	46%	54%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	18%
Both teams scored	50%	61%	54%
Clean sheets	21%	18%
Failed to score	36%	25%
Games	28	28

	Osasuna	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	2.90	2.30	2.64
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.21	4.35
Corners conceded	4.79	4.96
Match total	8.00	9.31	9.54
Over 8.5	46% 11/24	54% 14/26
Over 9.5	25% 6/24	42% 11/26
Over 10.5	8% 2/24	38% 10/26
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.29
Opponent cards	2.43	1.82
Match total	4.86	4.11	4.48
Over 3.5	82% 23/28	39% 11/28
Over 4.5	57% 16/28	32% 9/28

	Osasuna	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	4.30
Corners conceded	5.11	5.00
Match total	8.44	9.30	9.54
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.40
Opponent cards	3.00	2.80
Match total	5.50	5.20	4.48
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.77league 4.22

Red cards0.38league 0.28

Cards 5+54%league 47%

Fouls23.6league 24.5

Penalties0.38league 0.37

Home wins54%league 48%

Osasuna2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W8 Dec 25H · Levante2–02
D3 Nov 25A · Oviedo0–00

Girona1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Dec 25H · Atletico Madrid0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.