Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 27). Osasuna had 7 days of rest, Oviedo 7.2 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Osasuna57%
Draw25%
Oviedo18%
Osasuna59%
Draw23%
Oviedo18%
Osasuna57%
Draw25%
Oviedo18%
Osasuna50%
Draw27%
Oviedo23%
Osasuna59%
Draw23%
Oviedo18%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 13
Team strength
Osasuna
Oviedo
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
50
AttackIn forecast
23
50
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaOviedo
0.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.47
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
58%
Scored inContext
32%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
10.42
ShotsContext
9.00
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.74
32%
On target shareContext
30%
7.59
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
68%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.41
12.63
Shots allowedContext
15.26
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.26
3.29
BlocksContext
3.53
3.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.95
76%
Save rateContext
79%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
379
PassesContext
387
303
Accurate passesContext
320
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.53
FoulsContext
12.37
11.26
Fouls sufferedContext
11.05
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
60%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.60
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
34%
On target shareContext
28%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
67%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.89
BlocksContext
1.90
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
71%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
378
PassesContext
392
302
Accurate passesContext
325
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.90
FoulsContext
13.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km757 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel346 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 757 km | 527 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
16Moi Gómez
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
15Oier Luengo
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
7I. Chaira
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
5Alberto Reina
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Oviedo+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Oviedo · Away
0.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Osasuna wins1 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 3 Nov 2025Oviedo0–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.95 | 0.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 1.95 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 26% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 26% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 68% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Osasuna | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.70 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.74 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 9.48 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 6/16 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 4/16 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 6% 1/16 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 1.37 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 3.58 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 15/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 11/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Osasuna | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.40 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.30 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.17
Red cards0.62league 0.28
Cards 5+46%league 46%
Fouls24.9league 24.6
Penalties0.46league 0.36
Home wins23%league 46%
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L3 May 25A · Villarreal2–41
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Nov 25H · Rayo Vallecano0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna18 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
4
0-15
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
7
61-75
6
5
76-90
Oviedo18 games · scored 9 · conceded 28
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
