Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Osasuna had 6.7 days of rest, Real Betis 3.8 and had to travel 707 km.
Away travel707 kmRest days6.7 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Osasuna34%
Draw28%
Real Betis38%
Osasuna38%
Draw27%
Real Betis35%
Osasuna34%
Draw29%
Real Betis37%
Osasuna27%
Draw28%
Real Betis45%
Osasuna35%
Draw27%
Real Betis38%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 16
Team strength
Osasuna
Real Betis
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
50
AttackIn forecast
79
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaReal Betis
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
67%
Scored inContext
87%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.27
ShotsContext
14.37
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.77
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
69%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.18
12.50
Shots allowedContext
11.87
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.42
BlocksContext
2.97
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
74%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
374
PassesContext
463
302
Accurate passesContext
393
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.33
FoulsContext
10.33
11.07
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
14.30
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
71%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.88
BlocksContext
2.40
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
70%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
368
PassesContext
499
303
Accurate passesContext
431
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.80
FoulsContext
10.50
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km168 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel707 km1,018 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 8 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 168 km | 1,018 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
6Sergi Altimira
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Betis+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-2
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.14
Real Betis · Away
1.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Girona | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 3–5 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game | 42 of 87 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Osasuna wins1 draws8 Real Betis wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 28 Sep 2025Real Betis2–0Osasuna
- 11 May 2025Real Betis1–1Osasuna
- 19 Oct 2024Osasuna1–2Real Betis
- 5 May 2024Osasuna0–2Real Betis
- 29 Oct 2023Real Betis2–1Osasuna
- 22 Apr 2023Osasuna3–2Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.70 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 47% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 13% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Osasuna | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.23 | 4.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.48 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 6/26 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 2/26 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 4.50 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 24/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Osasuna | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.20 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.30 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.27
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 47%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.19league 0.36
Home wins69%league 49%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · Rayo Vallecano3–12
- L31 Aug 25A · Espanyol0–13
Real Betis1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W21 Dec 25H · Getafe4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna29 games · scored 36 · conceded 37
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
11
5
31-45
8
46-60
2
12
61-75
16
6
76-90
Real Betis30 games · scored 44 · conceded 37
3
9
0-15
9
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
9
1
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
